We’re halfway through the work week and have a huge set of MLB games today to celebrate. I’ve identified 3 edges in today’s 16-game slate that make up this mega parlay, but also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup. For now, let’s get into Wednesday’s MLB mega parlay.
Red Sox -1.5 (-125)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks alternate under 7.5 (+125)
Dodgers -2.5 (+125)
Parlay odds: +811
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Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-125) over Colorado Rockies
The Rockies’ starting rotation has been decimated by injuries and cuts (shoutout Jose Urena), but one guy that has remained healthy the entire time has been Austin Gomber. Unfortunately for Colorado, he’s turning into Jose Urena 2.0 because he’s been throwing batting practice in his last few outings. His ERA is up to 7.57, his xERA sits at 7.60 and his FIP is an absurd 6.75 — all of that means his struggles are no fluke. To list a few of the things that Gomber has struggled in: 1st percentile in xBA (.323), 2nd percentile in xSLG (.582), 6th percentile in strikeout rate (14%) and 25th percentile in barrel rate (9.9%). It’s not like the lefty had a rough start to the season and has bounced back either because, in June, he’s allowed 9 runs, 17 hits, 5 walks and 4 home runs in 6.2 innings. Those 2 starts were against the Royals and Padres, who rank 15th and 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, but as for the Red Sox, they rank 7th with a 124 wRC+.
Regardless of who the Red Sox were going to start, they had the pitching advantage on Wednesday. Fortunately for them, they have Garrett Whitlock starting, which makes their advantage even greater. The right-hander made 3 starts at the beginning of the season and didn’t look as sharp as Sox fans were accustomed to seeing, and he was placed on the injured list shortly after. Whitlock missed a month of action, but now he’s back and better than ever. In 3 outings since returning, the 27-year-old has allowed 6 runs and 16 hits while racking up 15 strikeouts in 16 innings. Although his sinker can run him into trouble sometimes, Whitlock still has the arsenal to keep the Rockies’ lineup off-balanced. Because Gomber is on the mound for the Rockies, there’s no other choice in this game besides the Red Sox run line.
Be sure to check out our Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox predictions
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks under 7.5 (+125)
I’ve been a huge fan of the Diamondbacks this season, not just because I took the over on their win total, but also because they’ve been a fun team to watch. Corbin Carroll has been a blast to watch on offense, but their starting pitching has been extremely underrated. Obviously, everyone knows Zac Gallen is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but Merrill Kelly has burst onto the scene this year with career-best numbers. After 13 starts, the right-hander has a 2.92 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and has the highest strikeout rate of his 5-year career. He’s been as consistent as they come since he’s allowed more than 3 runs just once in his last 8 starts, and that has resulted in a lot of low-scoring affairs. In fact, 9 of Kelly’s 12 starts have gone under the total this season.
Ranger Suarez had a rocky return to the Phillies starting rotation, but he’s settled in nicely recently. After allowing 12 runs in his first 11 innings, Suarez has flipped the switch and has given up just 4 runs in his last 19 innings. His recent starts weren’t against the A’s or Tigers either, they came against the Dodgers, Nationals and Mets who all possess dangerous orders. The biggest change from his first 3 starts to his latest 3 starts has been keeping the ball on the ground. Suarez is at his best when he uses his sinker and curveball to get ground balls which is something he strayed away from when he came back, but his ground-ball rate is back up to 51.6% which is substantially higher than the 44.8% MLB average.
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Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 (+125) over Chicago White Sox
This game involves one of my favorite spots in the sport: Kershaw at home. The lefty has been incredible this season with a 2.95 ERA and a 3.40 xERA, and he must be drinking from the fountain of the youth because his strikeout and hard-hit rates are some of his best numbers in years. However, at home, he’s even better. In 5 starts at Dodger Stadium, the southpaw has a 1.45 ERA with a 0.710 WHIP and has limited hitters to a .180 batting average and a .481 OPS. He’s been outstanding on his home mound this season, and tonight’s opponent shouldn’t break that trend. The White Sox rank 20th in wRC+ with a 25.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in the last 30 days. And to make matters worse, Chicago also finds itself in a bit of a slump. Since June 1, the White Sox have a .192 batting average, a .264 on-base percentage, .586 OPS and a 58 wRC+. They also own the 3rd highest strikeout rate and the 8th lowest walk rate during the last 2 weeks, so baserunners have been hard to come by for the Sox. They managed just 3 hits in last night’s game which tells you all you need to know about the Southsiders’ struggles right now.
The Dodgers mash right-handed pitching. They have a 113 wRC+ against right-handers this season which only trails the Rays and Rangers. On Wednesday night, they take on the veteran Mike Clevinger, who hasn’t had the best time in Dodger Stadium in his career. Clevinger is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in 2 career starts in L.A., and a lot of the damage against him has come from this same Dodgers lineup. Against Clevinger in their careers, Mookie Betts is 7-for-17 (.412), Will Smith is 6-for-10 (.600), J.D. Martinez is 6-for-9 (.667) and Max Muncy is 3-for-7 (.429). In short, Clevinger is going to have a hard time getting through the top of the order, and that’s without even mentioning Freddie Freeman! All in all, the Dodgers have the advantage in every aspect of this game.
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