Kyle Lupas
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We have all 30 teams in action this Wednesday with multiple series carrying wild card implications. The day starts off in Pittsburgh and ends in Houston with a duel between the Astros and Red Sox. For my mega parlay, I’m going right after 3 games where each team involved is vying for playoff positioning. So, let’s take a closer look at this FanDuel parlay paying out at +809, and be sure to read the entire article for my reasoning and analysis for each individual leg.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Phillies ML (-132)
Reds ML (+144)
Marlins ML (+112)
Parlay Odds: +809
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Philadelphia Phillies ML (-132) over San Francisco Giants
After a dominant 10-4 win on Monday, the Phillies opted for the dramatic last night with a 2-run walk-off single up the middle from Trea Turner. Tonight, they go for the clean sweep and a chance to extend their 3.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card standings. Michael Lorenzen takes the ball for the Phillies and has been nothing short of spectacular since being acquired at the trade deadline. In Lorenzen’s first 2 outings, he went a combined 17.0 innings, including a no-hitter, and surrendered just 2 earned runs. Lorenzen’s last start wasn’t as encouraging, as he was pulled after 3.1 innings, giving up 6 earned runs on 8 hits and 1 walk. I’m giving Lorenzen the benefit of the doubt however, as it was his first rough outing since the end of June, and he’s still been extremely efficient this season.
The Giants counter with right-hander Alex Cobb, who owns a 3.75 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 23 starts. While the numbers are respectable, Cobb has struggled to limit hits and runs in the month of August. Over his last 4 outings, Cobb has registered a 7.59 ERA while allowing 28 hits in 21.1 innings. I’ve been projecting some regression from Cobb for most of the season given his underlying metrics. For example, his xBA, hard-hit rate, and whiff percentage all rank in the bottom 20th percentile, while his 4.76 xERA is a run higher than his actual ERA. In addition to the starting pitching advantage for Philly, the Giants have looked lackadaisical defensively at times this series. They committed 3 errors in the first game of the series and that’s not going to help a team that’s now lost 12 of their last 16 games. I like the Phillies to finish off the series and leave with a win.
Cincinnati Reds ML (+144) over Los Angeles Angels
The next game I’ve got my eye on is between a pair of teams whose records mirror one another in the Cincinnati Reds (65-61) and the Los Angeles Angels (61-65). Each team also finds themselves out of the postseason if the season ended today, with the Reds a half game back of the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card and the Angels 10 games back of the Mariners. Obviously, the Angels have much more work to do, and they’ll have their work cut out for them. They’ve already dropped the first game of the series to Cincinnati and finish the series tonight with a double-header. I’m choosing to focus on game 1 of the double-header which pins rookie left-hander Andrew Abbott against the modern-day Babe Ruth in Shohei Ohtani.
There’s no debate that Ohtani is the more valuable player given his ability to both hit and pitch, but when you look at Ohtani’s and Abbott’s pitching numbers, there’s not a ton of separation – not enough for me to justify the Angels being significant favorites. Abbott is 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, whereas Ohtani is 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The most significant advantage Ohtani holds is his ability to strikeout batters at a higher clip – 31.4% as compared to Abbott’s 25.9% – but both numbers are still above league average.
So, with a solid pitching matchup, you have to look to the lineups, and the Reds have been much more consistent this season. The Reds haven’t played great in August (6-12), but the Angels have performed worse (5-14) and that’s after making moves at the deadline to acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, CJ Cron, and Randal Grichuk. The moves haven’t translated to wins and the Angels have been plagued with injuries all season long. On the bright side, Mike Trout returned to the lineup yesterday, but I think it’s too late for L.A. to turn the season around. I’m taking the Reds to come away with game 1 of the double-header.
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Miami Marlins ML (+112) over San Diego Padres
The final leg of this mega parlay comes out of San Diego, and like the Angels in the American League Wild Card, I think it’s also too late for the Padres to make a push in the NL Wild Card. It’s essentially turned into a 6-team race for 3 wild card spots between the Phillies, Cubs, D-backs, Reds, Giants, and Marlins. The Reds, Giants, and Marlins are all within 1 game back of the final wild card spot, whereas the Padres are still 6 games out. Nothing is impossible, but the Padres would have to be dang near perfect the rest of the way to make something happen. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening for them tonight as they go up against the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner in Sandy Alcantara.
Alcantara may have started the year off slow, but he’s most certainly showed flashes of his 2022 campaign over the past 2 months. It’s been the tale of two halves for Alcantara, who carried a 5.08 ERA around after his first 15 starts of the season. Over his next 10 outings, Alcantara owns a 2.75 ERA, while going at least 6.0 innings in all but 1 start. For Padres starter Seth Lugo, the season has been one of consistency, posting a 3.92 ERA across 19 outings while allowing 4 earned runs or more in just 4 of those starts. However, Lugo’s 42.0% hard hit rate is among the highest of his 8-year career, while his 24.0% strikeout rate is among his lowest. I have more trust in Alcantara and have little faith in a Padres’ lineup that’s underperformed this season provided the high expectations. San Diego has scored just 16 runs over their previous 6 games and I don’t see them putting up many against Alcantara. I’m backing the Marlins to take the series and continue to put up a fight in their postseason aspirations.
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