Kyle Lupas
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Wednesday offers plenty of excitement throughout the day as all 30 teams are in action. We start the day in D.C. and close things out in San Francisco. With no shortage of games to choose from, I have narrowed down the slate and picked my 3 favorite bets for a +804 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Let’s take a closer look at this parlay, and be sure to read the entire article for my reasoning and analysis for each individual leg.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Marlins vs Rays Over 7 (-122)
Reds ML (+120)
Mets ML (+126)
Parlay Odds +804
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Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays over 7 runs (-122)
The Marlins and Rays are arguably the 2 biggest surprises of the 2023 MLB season thus far. The Marlins are only 0.5 games back of the Phillies for second place in the NL East, whereas the Rays are currently 1.5 games back of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. However, both teams have slipped in the standings and have been unable to keep pace with their strong starts. Miami is 6-13 in the month and has lost 9 of its past 10 games, while Tampa Bay is 5-14 in the month after beginning the season 23-6. Figuring out why each team has been losing isn’t a complicated equation; they are not scoring nearly enough runs. In the month of July, Miami is averaging 4.05 runs per game and the Rays are averaging 3.42. For the Marlins this is actually on par for their season averages, but the Rays were averaging 5.64 runs per game through the first 85 games of the season.
Despite the offensive struggles, this afternoon’s game total of 7 runs appears far too low. Sandy Alcantara takes the ball for the Marlins, but this isn’t the Cy Young Alcantara from last season. The decline has been quite significant, and after posting a 2.28 ERA last season he owns a 4.70 ERA across 20 starts this season. Alcantara’s strikeout rate is down to 19.9% and his hard-hit rate is up to 41%. Zach Eflin has always been a solid starter in this league, but it’s hard to believe how much better than Alcantara he’s been in 2023. Now in his 8th season, Eflin is having a career year and owns a career-best 3.36 ERA and 3.14 xERA through 19 outings. Eflin’s strikeout rate saw a 5% increase from last season, but I have a difficult time believing he keeps up this pace for the remainder of the season. Each of these lineups are solid top to bottom and it’s why both ballclubs are having tremendous seasons. I’m going to back the over as one of these teams has to eventually break through.
Cincinnati Reds ML (+120) over Milwaukee Brewers
In a rubber match and last meeting of the season, I like the Cincinnati Reds to win the series as small underdogs. The Brewers have had the Reds’ number this season and have won 9 of their 12 meetings, but I like the pitching in favor of the Reds this afternoon. Although Ben Lively is not a dominant starting pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, he has provided more this season than the Reds could have asked for. Through 10 starts and 12 appearances, Lively holds a 3.88 ERA with improved strikeout numbers and above average command. Lively put together a solid outing against Milwaukee earlier in the month, holding them to 1 earned run on 4 hits and 2 walks across 5.2 innings.
Freddy Peralta also put together a great start against the Reds this month after tossing 6.0 scoreless innings, while allowing just 1 hit and 2 walks. That being said, Peralta’s quality starts have been few and far between this season. Through 19 starts, Peralta owns a 4.72 ERA and has given up at least 4 earned runs 6 times so far, while his 18 home runs allowed are 2 fewer than he allowed the previous 2 seasons combined. His xSLG of .395 is up from .300 a season ago and his 39.4% hard-hit rate is up from 31.3%. The Reds will create problems for Peralta — especially Elly De La Cruz, whose splits versus right-handed pitching is obvious to the naked eye. De La Cruz has 17 extra-base hits on the year, and 15 have come against right-handed pitching. Look for De La Cruz and the Reds to jump on Peralta and take the series in Milwaukee.
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New York Mets ML (+126) over New York Yankees
The quick 2-game subway series between the Mets and Yankees comes to a close tonight after the Mets coasted to a 9-3 victory last night. The tension is high and both New York teams might have the most disgruntled fanbases this season given their results thus far — or lack thereof. For the Mets, left-hander Jose Quintana will take the mound for only his second start since a left rib fracture kept him sidelined to begin the year. Quintana put together a solid debut against the White Sox last week, allowing 2 earned runs on 6 hits across 5.0 innings. Throughout his career, Quintana has been extremely reliable; his 3.75 career ERA over 11 seasons supports that.
A pitcher who hasn’t been quite that consistent is Yankees starter Carlos Rodon. He was spectacular in 2021 for the White Sox and just as productive for the Giants in 2022. However, Rodon began the year on the 60-day IL with a left forearm strain and has not been sharp in his return. Through his first 3 starts, Rodon has a 7.36 ERA, has given up 10 runs over his last 2 starts and nearly has as many walks (9) as strikeouts (11) in 14.2 innings. Rodon is sure to bounce back, but until he does, I’m willing to fade him. We’re getting the Mets at an excellent price here; I would regret passing up on it.
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