Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball taking place on Wednesday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +738 payout at DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ve hit MLB parlays at +529 and +722 over the past 2 days — can we make it 3 parlay wins in 3 days? Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Wednesday.
Cubs vs Brewers under 8.5 (-110)
Dodgers alternate run line -2.5 (+130)
Reds vs Nationals over 9.5 (-110)
MLB parlay odds: +738
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Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers under 8.5 (-110)
To start off this mega parlay, I’m going with the under in this NL Central clash between the Cubs and Brewers. This isn’t a starting pitching matchup that most casual fans will recognize, but it might be the best pairing of starting pitchers on the slate. Justin Steele gets the ball for Chicago and he’s been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball in 2023. He doesn’t allow hard contact (91st percentile in hard-hit rate), he doesn’t walk hitters (88th percentile in walk percentage) and his advanced numbers are excellent across the board. The Brewers’ poor offense (27th in SLG and OPS) shouldn’t slow Steele down, as he’s surrendered just 3 runs in his last 4 outings.
Milwaukee will counter with Adrian Houser, who’s allowed just 9 runs over his last 22 innings pitched, with 5 coming in just 1 start. Houser’s strikeout percentage and whiff rate are below average, but he also doesn’t allow opposing hitters to barrel his pitches up (86th percentile in barrel percentage) and he’s surrendered just 8 earned runs over his last 4 starts at home this season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 alternate run line over Pittsburgh Pirates (+130)
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m backing the Dodgers on an alternate run line. Los Angeles has been up-and-down of late, including a couple of poor efforts in a series loss to the Royals over the weekend. However, this home series against the Pirates is the perfect recipe for the Dodgers to get back on track. This is also an opportunity for Bobby Miller to bounce back after a pair of disappointing outings. Miller was fantastic in his first 4 starts at the Major League level (0.78 ERA), and his xERA is nearly a full point lower than his actual ERA number. Given that the Pirates are 24th in SLG and OPS this season, I’m expecting some positive regression and a strong outing from the young Dodger phenom at home.
The Dodgers’ offense has been in boom-or-bust mode recently, but they’re typically going to get consistent production from the top of their lineup on most nights. This unit should tee off against Pirates starter Luis Ortiz, who sits in the bottom 5 percentile in xBA, xERA, xwOBA, xSLG and strikeout percentage. If Los Angeles plays up to its potential, this should be a lopsided victory.
Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals over 9.5 (-110)
To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the over in this matchup between the Reds and Nationals. The over cashed fairly easily in Tuesday’s contest and I’d expect a similar outcome on Wednesday given this starting pitching matchup. Cincinnati has allowed the 4th-most runs this season and Graham Ashcraft has certainly been one of those Reds pitchers who’s struggled this season (6.66 ERA, bottom 10 percentile in xERA and xBA). Ashcraft has also allowed at least 6 runs in 5 of his last 10 outings, so the Nats should go to bat with confidence. And while Josiah Gray has been solid on paper for the Nationals this season, his xERA is nearly a full point higher than his actual ERA, suggesting that regression is looming on the horizon. Let’s back the over in DC.
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