Caleb Wilfinger
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The Major League Baseball season has started with a bang as the new rules have created more excitement and made the game much quicker. With a full slate taking place on Sunday, I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +723 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for today.
Blue Jays vs Astros Over 9 (-120)
Mets ML (-115)
Twins -1.5 (+135)
MLB parlay odds: +723
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Over 9 (-120)
To start our mega parlay, we’re going to be backing the over in the Blue Jays vs Astros matchup. This is a game between a couple of potent offenses against a pair of volatile pitchers. Toronto is facing Luis Garcia, who holds an xERA of 7.51 and does not grade out well in terms of opponent xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, among other metrics. In a small sample size, the likes of George Springer and Bo Bichette have performed very well against Garcia, and Matt Chapman is having the best start to his career this season. The Astros should also contribute to this total against Jose Berrios, who holds an ERA of 7.98 and is in the bottom 10 percentile of all pitchers in hard-hit rate. Against the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and this Astros lineup, we should see Berrios struggle once again in this one.
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New York Mets ML over Los Angeles Dodgers (-115)
For the second leg of our mega parlay, we’re going with the Mets on the money line. I’m not sure there has been a better team to fade throughout the young season than the Los Angeles Dodgers. Speaking from the perspective of a Dodgers fan, this team simply doesn’t have it at the moment. They’ve been in a funk since opening day and have now lost 7 of their last 10 games. Now, the Dodgers will take on former teammate Max Scherzer — a pitcher that Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez have not fared well against in their careers. Conversely, Noah Syndergaard has been pretty inconsistent in his trio of starts this season for Los Angeles and is facing a Mets lineup that should feast on the right-hander. New York should get it done on the road.
Be sure to check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets of the day
Minnesota Twins -1.5 over Boston Red Sox (+135)
For the final leg in our mega parlay, we’re going with the Twins on the run line. Minnesota has been impressive in April, while the same can’t be said of the Red Sox. This should carry over into Wednesday’s game, particularly given the starting pitching matchup we have in store. Joe Ryan has been outstanding in 2023, holding an xERA of 1.58 and ranking in the top 10 percentile in xwOBA, xBA, strikeout rate and xSLG per Baseball Savant. His dominance over hitters should continue in this one against a Boston lineup he’s had success in a small sample size.
Ryan will be opposed by Corey Kluber, who has struggled mightily over his first three starts. The metrics show that opponents are making hard contact against the righty and he’s already allowed 10 earned runs in 13 innings this season. I’m expecting another strong effort from the Twins and they should win comfortably.
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