MLB Wednesday parlay at mega +681 odds, today 7/19: Don't fade the Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith (16) celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Dodger Stadium.
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Caleb Wilfinger

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball taking place on Wednesday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +681 payout at DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ve already hit a pair of Same Game Parlays this week, can we add a mega parlay to that tally? Let’s find out! Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Wednesday.

Dodgers ML + team total over 4.5 (+100)

Giants vs Reds Under 10.5 (-105)

Twins vs Mariners Under 7.5 (-105)

MLB parlay odds: +681

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Los Angeles Dodgers ML + team total over 4.5 (+100)

To start off this mega parlay, I’m going with the Dodgers to score at least 5 runs and defeat the Orioles. This bet hinges on some runs being scored by the visitors, and few lineups in baseball are hotter than the Dodgers, who entered the all-star break on a tear and emerged playing just as well. It all starts with the quartet at the top of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez and Will Smith, all of whom have enjoyed great success against right-handed pitching this season.

They’ll get the pleasure of facing Dean Kremer, who ranks inside the bottom 10th percentile of all starters in xBA and SLG. Julio Urias is going up against a difficult Orioles lineup, but the lefty has allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits over his last 12 innings pitched. Los Angeles should roll in this one.

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San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Under 10.5 (-105)

For the second leg of this mega parlay, I’m backing the under in this National League clash between the Giants and Reds. This starting pitching matchup of Ross Stripling vs Graham Ashcraft leaves a lot to be desired, which could be why this total has reached double digits. However, I feel comfortable taking a shot in the other direction simply due to the way these offenses are playing. The Reds were red-hot for most of June and into early July, but things changed quickly in recent weeks as Cincinnati’s offense came back down to earth. On the other side, the Giants are primarily winning with their pitching of late, with 8 of their last 10 games having stayed under this total. Given that these teams just combined for over 20 runs on Tuesday, I’ll look for some regression in this one.

Check out today’s MLB YRFI/NRFI Best Bets — our expert is on a 14-5 run!

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Under 7.5 (+100)

To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the under in this matchup between the Twins and Mariners. Seattle continues to be on the outside looking in at the AL playoff picture, but the Mariners’ struggles this season have certainly not been on the mound. At the top of the rotation, Luis Castillo has been nothing short of an ace, as he sits in the top 20th percentile of all starters in walk rate and whiff rate. With an ERA of 2.96, Castillo has remained consistent throughout the course of this season, and that should continue on Wednesday.

It was a rough first few months of the season for Kenta Maeda, and that’s reflected in his ERA of 5.50 on the year. However, the southpaw is due for some pretty massive regression, considering his xERA is way down at 3.85. It’s fair to suggest that he’s been unlucky, and the lefty should fare well against this struggling Mariners lineup. Having allowed just 6 runs over his last 4 starts, I expect a solid effort from the veteran Maeda on the road at T-Mobile Park. Let’s back the under 7.5 runs in what should be a low-scoring affair in Seattle on Wednesday.

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