Kevin Davies
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Last night saw a little bit of everything happen on the diamond. Heated divisional rivalries, teams clinching a postseason berth and even a game-ending triple play. I have found 3 edges in today’s slate that make up my +1143 MLB parlay for tonight’s action, while you can also check out our MLB picks for each of the big matchups on Wednesday, September 25.
Royals vs Nationals alternate Under 6.5 (+164)
Red Sox ML (+116)
Padres ML (+118)
MLB parlay odds: +1143
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Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Under 6.5 (+164)
Last night’s game between these 2 teams was scoreless after 9 innings. It took until the 10th inning for an error by the Nationals to give the Royals the 1-run lead, which was all Kansas City needed to win. I wasn’t surprised to see both teams struggling at the plate since the Royals’ offense has been slumping for the last several weeks and the Nationals have been without CJ Abrams ever since his all-nighter at the casino in Chicago. In September, these 2 lineups rank 25th and 29th in batting average and 26th and 28th in OPS. Don’t expect either lineup to break out tonight since Michael Lorenzen and DJ Herz are taking the mound. Lorenzen has been out for the last month due to a hamstring injury but will make his return tonight in a pivotal matchup for the Royals. The right-hander has been fantastic since being dealt to Kansas City at the deadline as he owns a 1.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 5 starts. As for Herz, he has surrendered 2 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his last 11 outings. I’m comfortable backing both pitchers and fading these slumping offenses.
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Boston Red Sox ML over Toronto Blue Jays (+116)
Richard Fitts got his first taste of MLB action 2 weeks ago and has been spectacular in his limited time on the mound. He has yet to allow an earned run and has given up just 13 hits in 15.2 innings against the White Sox, Yankees and Twins. Fitts hasn’t been getting a lot of swings and misses since his strikeout rate is just 11.1%, but he has been great about avoiding barrels and getting weak contact. He will be countered by Kevin Gausman, who is making his 31st and final start of the season. Gausman has faced the Red Sox twice this year and was knocked around in both starts; he surrendered 9 runs, 11 hits and 4 home runs in 11.2 innings. Boston’s lineup has seen Gausman well in their careers, and even though they will be without Rafael Devers, they still have Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas in the heart of the order. The Red Sox have excellent value at plus odds against a struggling Jays team.
San Diego Padres ML over Los Angeles Dodgers (+118)
Last night’s game couldn’t have ended in a more chaotic way. The Dodgers hit into a triple-play down 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th with Shohei Ohtani on deck. That secured the win for the Padres, who are now just 2 games back of the Dodgers in the division. Tonight’s game is just as important as yesterday’s, and the Padres will send Dylan Cease to the mound to battle Jack Flaherty. Cease scuffled a bit in August and struggled with control at times, but he has been lights out in September and has thrown back-to-back shutouts coming into this outing. Cease’s most recent performance was a 8.1 scoreless innings against the Astros in which he allowed just 2 hits while striking out 5. Tonight, he will face a dangerous Dodgers lineup that has only seen him once this season. In that start back in July, Cease limited Los Angeles to 1 run on 3 hits in 5.2 innings. I’m always drawn towards Cease at plus odds; that won’t change today.
Read our full San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers prediction
