What a wonderful Wednesday slate of baseball games. It’s an action-packed day of baseball that starts in the early afternoon in Pittsburgh and ends with an NL West rivalry game in San Francisco. With a loaded slate of games, I’ve found 3 edges that I believe make up the perfect parlay. Also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Wednesday.
Astros -1.5 (+105)
Cardinals/Rockies over 12.5 (+100)
Rays -1.5 (+175)
MLB parlay odds: +1027
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Houston Astros -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (+105)
Rich Hill decided to come back for his 19th season and, well, it’s not going great. In 9 innings, Hill has allowed 10 runs and 11 hits which includes 5 home runs. The 43-year-old is relying too heavily on his infamous curveball, which has a lower horizontal movement rate than last season. But his real problem is with his fastball, which is 2 mph slower than last season and is now sitting in just the mid-80s. Hill’s road ahead will only get more difficult since the Astros are in town, and Houston has mashed left-handed pitching. Before Tuesday night’s game, the Astros ranked 8th in batting average, 7th in on-base percentage and 2nd in OPS against lefties. The core of the Houston lineup is also familiar with Hill, and Jose Abreu, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena are a combined 7-for-16 (.438) against the veteran.
Jose Urquidy was stuck in the shadows of the dominant Houston rotation last season, but he’s made a name for himself this season. Through 2 starts, Urquidy has a 3.86 ERA paired with a 3.22 xERA as well as a career-high 25% strikeout rate. Admittedly, Urquidy is still quite hittable, but the difference between this season and last has been his way to work around the hits. And the only bat Urquidy needs to work around in the Pirates lineup is Bryan Reynolds, as the loss of Oneil Cruz combined with a below-average bottom half of the lineup has created a very weak offense. I’m anticipating a big win behind Houston’s bats.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for Wednesday — we’re on an 8-2 run!
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies over 12.5 (+100)
If you’re looking for a good pitching matchup, you’ve come to the wrong place. Jack Flaherty and Jose Urena will duel in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, and that sounds like a lot of runs to me. In just 5 innings over his first 2 starts of the season, Urena has given up 10 runs, 12 hits and 7 walks. This season, opposing batters have a ridiculous 1.520 OPS and a .462 batting average against the veteran. The most worrying aspect, though, is that his advanced metrics don’t suggest that things will get better soon. Urena’s .417 xBA, which is in the 1st percentile, is a good illustration of this. Because of this, even though Urena’s batting average against is ridiculously high at .462, hitters are still expected to have a batting average well over .400.
As for the Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty, his season is off to a pretty strange start. Although it’s impressive that he only gave up 4 hits in 10 innings, it doesn’t accurately reflect his season. While Flaherty hasn’t been getting hit, he also hasn’t given the hitters the opportunity because he is tied with Edward Cabrera for the most walks allowed with 13. Flaherty has managed to overcome these walks this season, allowing just 2 runs and posting a 1.80 ERA. However, his 5.23 xERA suggests that he has been extremely lucky, and given that he has handed out more than a dozen free passes, it is difficult to disagree. The base paths should be busy all night, and we should see a very high score in Colorado.
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Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 over Boston Red Sox (+175)
This is the leg of the parlay that really drives up the payout. The Rays will welcome Taj Bradley to the show as the #1 prospect will make his MLB debut on Wednesday night. This was Zach Eflin’s spot in the rotation, but he was placed on the injured list late Tuesday afternoon. Bradley has been a star in the Tampa Bay organization, and after just 14 starts in Triple-A, he’s earned an opportunity in the big leagues. In 12 starts for the Durham Bulls last season, Bradley had a 3.66 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. He’s not a strikeout pitcher and won’t overpower you, but he gets a lot of weak contact and that’s where he finds his success.
Chris Sale is finally healthy and is supposed to be the ace of the Red Sox. However, Sale has struggled with keeping the ball in the park since he’s allowed 4 home runs in 8 innings. He’s using his slider less and his fastball more, and that has been a big reason for his problems. Opponents have a .667 batting average and an average exit velocity of 102.2 mph against Sale’s fastball. A flat fastball won’t do well against a Rays lineup that has been mashing to start the season and has seen Sale a lot in their careers.
The core of the Rays order is made up of Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco and Harold Ramirez, and those 4 hitters are a combined 15-for-32 (.469) against Sale in their careers. The Tampa Bay bullpen is rested and ready to go, so if Bradley can limit the Red Sox in the first half of the game, they have a great chance for another big win.
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