Mark Lammey
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The Nationals and Cubs are wrapping up their midweek series with an early afternoon game. It won’t be the 1st game of the day, but it’s always nice not having to wait as long for the games to begin. Both teams were topics of discussion over the past week, primarily regarding recent trades. The Nats sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego, while the Cubs held on to Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. Despite their recent attention, it’s likely short-lived as neither looks set for a postseason run. Therefore, let’s take advantage of this matchup while we have it. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Nationals +1.5 (-135)
Under 8.5 total runs (-125)
Victor Robles to record a hit (-200)
Parlay odds: +390
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Washington Nationals +1.5 (-135) over Chicago Cubs
It’s been difficult finding value with the Nationals recently, but they have an opportunity for back-to-back good games. That’s largely due to them having their best option on the mound, Josiah Gray. Washington has been notorious for their terrible starting pitching this season, but that has not been due to Gray. Patrick Corbin and his 16 losses are 4 more than any other pitcher, 1 of which is fellow-National Joan Adon. With each of them having an ERA over 7.0, that’s what has the Nats’ team ERA so terrible.
Gray is at least out to reach a .500 record for himself at 8-8, and has led Washington to some great upsets. The most recent was against his former team and league-best Dodgers just 2 weeks ago. The fact that the upset over the Dodgers was without Soto and Bell provides even more confidence for today’s game. Going back another fortnight, we saw another upset over the division-rival Phillies.
Cubs lefty starter Justin Steele has pitched just 4.2 and 3.2 innings in his last 2 starts, which exposes Chicago’s weak bullpen far more than they would prefer. One of those starts was also a loss to a depleted Giants lineup, and the most recent was a close 1-run win over a Marlins team that is the worst lineup in the league against lefties. The Nats don’t provide value often, so let’s take advantage of it while Corbin is not on the mound.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs
Under 8.5 total runs (-125)
Wrigley Field in Chicago is always the most volatile venue in regards to totals, and this afternoon’s game is no different. The money line was listed as early as Tuesday morning, while the total was set just prior to this posting. With the winds continuing to blow inward, expect another low-scoring game today. The Cubs have been playing at home since last Friday, and their afternoon games have proven the low-scoring conditions correct. Their entire weekend series went under the total, with finals of 2-1, 4-0, and 3-0. That provides plenty of cushion when using this alternate line.
While the weather and winds are a crucial factor for games at Wrigley, that’s not the only reason to expect a low-scoring game. Neither of the lineups featured in this matchup are overly impressive. When Soto and Bell were around, the Nats at least provided hope for the rare offensive explosion. However, their absence makes that all the less likely. That’s what has the Nats as the 3rd-lowest scoring team in the National League, and the Cubs are just 1 spot ahead of them. Steele was the starter for the aforementioned 2-1 game over the weekend, and his prior start saw just 6 runs. Gray has been Washington’s best starter all season, with outings against strong lineups like the Cardinals and Phillies ending with just 5 total runs. Given the conditions and caliber of lineups, expect a slow afternoon in Chicago.
Also check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today – we’ve cashed 7 of our last 8!
Victor Robles to record a hit (-200)
If the Nationals are going to have success and potentially pull off the upset, they’re going to need production from the top of their lineup. That begins with leadoff man Victor Robles. He took over the role when Washington shuffled around their lineup after the Juan Soto and Josh Bell trade. While Robles may not be Soto, we’re also not asking for much with a hit prop. He’s also been hitting well against lefties this season, which is what he’ll be facing in Steele. He currently has a .333 batting average and .830 OPS against such pitching. Robles also came into this series recording 4 hits in their most recent series against the Phillies, and had a hit in 2 of the 3 games against the Mets in the series prior. Along with the Cubs’ uninspiring bullpen, the Nats centerfielder can put one in play today.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+965 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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