The MLB week continues with an action-packed slate on Tuesday which starts at 6:10 pm ET in Cleveland and concludes with a 9:40 pm ET first pitch in Seattle. I’ve identified 3 edges in today’s slate that make up this mega parlay, but also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup. For now, let’s get into Tuesday’s MLB mega parlay.
Rangers -1.5 (+110)
Yankees -1.5 (+125)
Giants-Twins alternate under 7 (+115)
Parlay odds: +925
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (+110) over Pittsburgh Pirates
The Rangers’ rotation has developed into one of the best in baseball. Even without Jacob deGrom healthy, Texas has a solid 1-2-3 punch with Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning, and it will be Eovaldi’s turn on the bump on Tuesday night. The veteran had his 29.2 scoreless innings streak broken in his last start against the Braves, but his season ERA still sits at an impressive 2.83 with a 2.89 xERA. One of the best parts of Eovaldi’s game is that he’s very efficient and rarely gives out free passes, and that’s been on full display in the last few weeks as he’s completed at least 6 innings in 6 straight starts. Eovaldi will also be making this start on the road, which is where he has performed his best because his ERA decreases to 1.83 with just a .213 opponent batting average.
Rich Hill is a candidate for major negative regression. His ERA sits at a respectable 3.80, but his xERA sits at a whopping 5.87, which is a huge difference. The 43-year-old has been getting quite lucky in his recent starts against below-average offenses which included a 1-hit performance in his last outing against Detroit. However, the Rangers are no ordinary offense against left-handed pitchers with their 133 wRC+. Only 2 lineups have a better wRC+ against southpaws, so I’m confident in taking Texas on the run line.
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New York Yankees -1.5 (+125) over Baltimore Orioles
Gerrit Cole is on pace to have his best season yet. After 10 starts, Cole has a 2.01 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP along with one of the lowest barrel rates of his career. The Yankee ace is coming off a dominant performance against an AL East rival in which he threw 6 scoreless innings with 6 punchouts in Toronto. This will be his 4th straight outing against an AL East opponent as the Yankees welcome the Orioles to the Bronx on Tuesday night, and I think Cole is set up for success. Yankee Stadium is known to be extremely hitter-friendly with the short porch in right, but that doesn’t bother Cole. In 6 starts in the Bronx this year, Cole has a 1.18 ERA with a 0.921 WHIP along with just a .168 opponent batting average and .498 OPS.
The Orioles have a lot of young starters in their rotation who are still trying to make a name for themselves in the big leagues, and one of those guys is Kyle Bradish. The right-hander has a 3.90 ERA paired with a 4.15 xERA in 7 starts this season. He has a 5-pitch arsenal that he can choose from, but his fastball, his most commonly thrown pitch, has been his Achilles’ heel. Hitters have a .393 batting average with just an 18.7% whiff rate against that pitch, and he faces a New York lineup that ranks 7th against fastballs this season. With Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo hitting the cover off the ball recently, I think the Yankees’ offense can give Cole the run support he needs.
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San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins under 7 (+115)
I thought the total for Monday night’s game was far too high, so I took an alternate under in yesterday’s mega parlay and it cashed with several runs to spare. Tonight, I’m doing the same thing. Alex Cobb will take the mound for the Giants, and he will be countered by Sonny Gray of the Twins, and that immediately signals a pitchers’ duel to me. Cobb comes into this game with a stellar 1.94 ERA as the heart and soul of San Francisco’s starting rotation, even if he did have a below-average start his last time out. The under has hit in Cobb’s last 6 starts in a row and 7 of his 9 overall, so low-scoring games have become a common theme with him on the mound.
The biggest reason for the under in this game is Sonny Gray. The veteran has had an outstanding season which has seen him shoot to the top of the leaderboard in ERA. His best starts have normally been at home too since he is 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA and a 0.857 WHIP in his 5 outings in Minnesota. In those 30.1 innings at home, Gray has limited the opposition to a .181 batting average with just a .230 on-base percentage. Neither team has an offense that can score in bunches or poses much of a threat to break out, so I’m content with taking another alternate under in a Twins game.
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