Kyle Lupas
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With less than 3 weeks remaining in the MLB regular season, a number of teams are vying for postseason berths and each of my MLB mega parlay picks for today involve a team that would be playing in the postseason if things ended today. Today, I’ve decided to go with 2 favorites on the run line along with a home underdog in the Philadelphia Phillies. This parlay gives us a generous +858 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a closer look at this MLB mega parlay and be sure to read the entire article for my reasoning and analysis for each individual leg. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all 17 games today.
Orioles -1.5 (+102)
Phillies ML (+108)
Brewers -1.5 (+128)
MLB parlay odds: +858
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Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over St. Louis Cardinals (+102)
It’s been a rough season for 42-year-old Cardinals legend Adam Wainwright and St. Louis has lost by 2 or more runs in his last 7 starts. Wainwright’s last start in Atlanta began with a first-pitch fastball that traveled over the center field fence off the bat of Ronald Acuna Jr. and ended after 5.2 innings. Wainwright would surrender 6 earned runs on 8 hits, 4 home runs and 3 walks and the former World Series Champion has been stuck on 198 wins since June 17. Through 19 starts, Wainwright is pitching to a career-worst 8.19 ERA while his underlying metrics are some of the worst marks among starting pitchers, including an 11.3% strikeout rate. Wainwright has never been a flamethrower on the mound, but his lack of velocity is noticeable to the casual baseball fan. His sinker is sitting at 86.9 mph and opposing lineups are hitting .406 on the pitch he goes to the most.
That being said, I think the Orioles get to Wainwright early and the offense has been locked in of late. Over their past 5 games, the O’s have scored 10 or more runs 4 times, with Austin Hays leading the charge and batting .389 in that span. For Baltimore, it’ll be lefty John Means taking the hill for his season debut since returning from Tommy John surgery last spring. Means pitched in 6 rehab starts and registered a 3.74 ERA with 22 strikeouts across 21.2 innings. Each of Means’ last 2 outings went 5.0 innings and he maxed out at 86 pitches. I’m assuming Means will be on some type of pitch count, but it doesn’t appear to be extremely restrictive. The emotions will certainly run high for Means today as it’s been 17 months since his last Major League start, but if we judge him on his past performances, I’d imagine he’ll settle in and give the Orioles some quality innings before turning it over to a top-5 bullpen. I’ll back the Orioles to cover the run line in St. Louis.
Philadelphia Phillies ML over Atlanta Braves (+108)
The Philadelphia Phillies have slowly seen their lead in the NL Wild Card standings shrink as they are now just 1.5 games up on the Chicago Cubs after splitting their doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves yesterday. Regardless, the Phillies should be extremely encouraged with the production they’ve received from the top of their order yesterday, especially Trea Turner, who went 4-for-9 in the doubleheader while hitting his 10th home run in his last 12 games. The Braves’ offense has also not taken their foot off the gas with Matt Olson hitting his 49th and 50th home runs, while driving in 6 runs. While offense has been the focal point of the series so far, I think tonight comes down to the starting pitching.
Left-hander Max Fried makes his 13th start for the Braves tonight while pitching to a 2.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Over his last 8 starts, Fried is still pitching to a respectable 3.66 ERA and surrendered 3 earned runs across 6.0 innings to the Cardinals in his last outing. Fried’s xERA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all rank in the 90th percentile or better, so it certainly won’t be an easy matchup for the Phillies. I do give Philadelphia a slight edge, however, given how well they’ve played at home (43-29), and the fact that Zack Wheeler has pitched extremely well after an inconsistent start to the season. Wheeler is pitching to a 3.49 ERA over 28 starts, but a 2.45 ERA across his last 9 outings, with all but one start qualifying as a quality outing. Wheelers’ best start of the season also just so happens to come against the Braves after tossing an 8.0-inning shutout with 12 strikeouts in a Phillies win. Give me the Phillies at home.
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Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over Miami Marlins (+128)
Finally, we head to Miami where the Marlins will attempt to bounce back from a 12-0 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last night. The Brewers finished the night with 17 hits, 23 total baserunners and every starter recorded at least 1 hit. The best pitcher for the Marlins last night was catcher Jacob Stallings, who only gave up 1 run in the top of the 8th inning. Milwaukee should be in great position to follow up with another win tonight since Brandon Woodruff tossed a complete game shutout and saved the Brewers’ bullpen. Milwaukee also comes right back with another top-notch starter when Freddy Peralta takes the ball for his 28th start.
Peralta is pitching to a 3.89 ERA on the year, but an impressive 2.09 ERA across his previous 8 starts. I think he will turn in another quality outing tonight, especially with Jorge Soler still sidelined for the Marlins. The Marlins only have 146 home runs on the season (35 from Soler) and don’t have a power bat to necessarily replace Soler’s production in the interim. This is a team that’s only 1.5 games back from the third and final spot in the NL Wild Card but has a -58 run differential on the season. The loss of Soler can’t be understated.
The Marlins are going with the opener approach tonight with JT Chargois taking the first inning before handing the ball off to Edward Cabrera to serve as the long reliever. Chargois has served in this role before, so I’m not as concerned with his performance as I am with Cabrera. In 17 starts and 18 appearances, Cabrera has been shaky at times with a 4.56 ERA over 81.0 innings. Some of Cabrera’s underlying metrics are remarkable, including a .198 xBA and 31.7% whiff rate. However, command has been a major issue as Cabrera is walking 15.3% of his batters, which can quickly lead to big innings. I’m going to back Peralta and the Brewers on the road to not only win, but also cover the run line.
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