After just a 4-game slate on Monday, we’re back with a 15-game slate on Tuesday. That means even more options for our mega parlay, and I’ve found 3 games in which I believe there’s an edge. I cashed my last mega parlay at +847 odds on Sunday which made for 2 mega parlay wins in my last 7 tries, so let’s go for lucky number 3 on Tuesday!
But before we dive in, be sure to read our MLB picks for every MLB side and total today.
New York Yankees ML over Toronto Blue Jays (+100)
It’s very surprising to see the Yankees as underdogs in back-to-back games. They were slight underdogs in Monday’s series opener against Kevin Gausman, which I think was an overreaction to his reputation, but there is no reason they shouldn’t be the favorite against Jose Berrios. Blue Jays fans have been waiting for Berrios to turn his season around and perform the way he did in Minnesota and for the Blue Jays in the second half of last season. But there’s just over a week left in the season, and that hope should be long gone. He has a 5.27 ERA paired with a 5.24 xERA, so statistics indicate his poor season has not been due to bad luck.
He has made 3 starts against the Yankees this season and has allowed 10 runs and 17 hits in 17 innings. Against Jameson Taillon and the Yankees, Berrios and the Toronto lineup are outmatched. I love the Yankees at plus-money odds on Tuesday.
After a winner yesterday, check out today’s MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets
New York Mets -1.5 over Miami Marlins (+110)
I honestly can’t believe this line is being offered at plus-money odds. Pablo Lopez has been rocked by the Mets this season as he’s allowed 22 runs and 34 hits in just 16.2 innings. That’s an 11.34 ERA and a 2.34 WHIP in just 4 starts, and New York has won 3 of those 4 starts by scores of 10-4, 9-3 and 11-3. It has been just the opposite for Carlos Carrasco, who is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA in 4 starts against Miami this season. His last start against the Marlins was at the beginning of September, and that resulted in an 8-run win for the Mets.
Also, New York has won 10 of Carrasco’s last 12 starts with 9 of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. There’s no reason for the Mets to slow down, as they’ve clinched a playoff berth but are still in a heated race with the Braves for the NL East crown. Expect another Mets blowout win against Lopez.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Marlins vs New York Mets predictions
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox under 8 runs (+125)
It’s a battle between the bottom two teams in the AL East, yet the Orioles are still holding on to a glimmer of postseason hope. The Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Yankees on Sunday night, so they’re just playing out the rest of their season at this point, but Michael Wacha is still working for a big offseason contract.
Wacha proved himself in his 1-year contract with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP through 120 innings. Six of his last 8 outings have been quality starts, and one of those starts came against the Orioles. In his 2 starts against Baltimore this season, Wacha has allowed 3 runs and 10 hits in 11.2 innings for a 2-0 record and a 2.31 ERA. This start will also be in Boston, which is where Wacha has been lights out since he has a 1.72 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 9 starts. The average combined score in his 9 starts at Fenway is 7.55 runs, just under this alternate total with room to spare.
Opposing Wacha is Kyle Bradish, who turned his season around at the all-star break. He has a 2.67 ERA and opponents are hitting just .210 against him in those 11 starts. His last outing was against the Astros, and he threw 8.2 scoreless innings while surrendering just 2 hits and 10 strikeouts. His most recent start against the Red Sox resulted in 1 run and 2 hits allowed in 7 innings, and that game finished with just 1 run. Give me the under in what should be a better pitching matchup than oddsmakers suggest.
Be sure to check out our full Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox predictions
Tuesday’s MLB mega parlay (9/27)
Yankees ML (+100)
Mets -1.5 (+110)
Orioles/Red Sox alternate total under 8 runs (+125)
Parlay odds: +845
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