Kevin Davies
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Only one week remains in the first half of the MLB season. The Home Run Derby is next Monday and the All-Star Game happens next Tuesday, so the finish line is in sight. But before we can get to the Midsummer Classic, there are several important series happening this week. I’ve taken my 3 favorite MLB picks for today and created an MLB parlay that pays out at over 8/1 odds. Let’s dive in!
Phillies -1.5 (+146)
Guardians -1.5 (+114)
Nationals ML (+114)
MLB parlay odds: +834
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Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Los Angeles Dodgers (+146)
There are only a few pitchers that I get as excited about as Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia ace has put together a Cy Young caliber season as he owns a 2.74 ERA and 2.97 xERA in 18 starts. His advanced metrics indicate that his success is the farthest thing from a fluke, so I’m all in on the Phillies ace. However, the part that makes me want to back the Phillies tonight is the setting. Wheeler at home has been one of the most profitable spots in baseball. In 10 starts at Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler is 6-2 with a 1.76 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and a .175 batting average allowed. Plus, his ERA improves to 1.43 in his last 7 starts at home.
As for Wheeler’s counterpart, Bobby Miller hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. He’s surrendered 10 runs, 14 hits, 3 home runs and 9 walks in 13.1 innings to the Rockies, White Sox and Diamondbacks since coming back. Take the Phillies for a statement series opener win as the first leg of today’s MLB parlay.
Read our full Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (+114)
Fading Kenta Maeda has become a personal hobby. The veteran arm hasn’t had a great 2024 season and I’ve loved taking full advantage of that. In 15 starts, Maeda has a 6.71 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP. His strikeout rate has dipped 10% from last season and his xBA has gone up over 40 points. Maeda suffered a minor injury at the beginning of June and has allowed 19 runs, 29 hits and 10 walks in 23.2 innings since then. In that span, Maeda has allowed a .319 batting average and .283 xBA while recording just an 18% strikeout rate. This won’t be his first start against the Guardians this season either as he was rocked for 7 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in just 2 innings against Cleveland in May. After that start, the Guardians lineup improved their career numbers to a .304 batting average with only a 9.1% strikeout rate against Maeda. Expect a comfortable win from the Guardians as our next MLB parlay pick.
Read our full Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers prediction
Washington Nationals ML over New York Mets (+114)
I feel as though the oddsmakers are still not giving Jake Irvin the respect he deserves. The right-hander is coming off the best start of his career and it was against this Mets team. Irvin went 8 innings and allowed just 1 hit while striking out 8. That outing wasn’t an outlier either since Irvin has been fantastic for nearly the entire year. Going back to June 1, Irvin has limited hitters to a .189 batting average and .194 xBA with a 25% strikeout rate. Plus, Irvin has actually been better on the road this season. His ERA dips to 2.35 and his WHIP drops to 0.86.
As for Jose Quintana, he is due for negative regression any time now. He’s sporting a 4.22 ERA but he owns a 5.34 xERA and a .287 xBA. Since the Nationals just saw him last week, they could be more prepared to face him this time. I’m taking the better pitcher in this matchup and siding with the Nationals to round off today’s MLB parlay.
Now check out today’s best MLB player prop bets — we’re on a 13-4 run!
