Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
All 30 teams are in action this Tuesday, starting out in Cleveland at 6:10 pm ET with a game between the Guardians and Boston Red Sox and finishing up in San Francisco with the Giants and New York Mets — with first pitch set for 9:45 pm ET. For today’s parlay I’m projecting a low-scoring affair in Cincinnati while backing a pair of road teams to cover the run line.
Below I’ll provide a breakdown of each individual leg, and don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Phillies vs Reds Under 9 (-120)
Mariners -1.5 (+138)
Orioles -1.5 (+104)
MLB Parlay Odds: +790
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds under 9 (-120)
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, as they ride a 7-game winning streak that extended with a 7-0 victory over the Cincinnati Reds yesterday evening. Not enough can be said about the Phillies’ starting rotation to this point, as they own a collective 2.20 ERA — which is by and large the best mark in the National League. The next closest team is the San Diego Padres, whose starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.74. Last night’s starter, Ranger Suarez, tossed 7.0 scoreless innings and extended his scoreless streak to 25 innings — which is the longest streak by a Phillies pitcher since Cliff Lee in 2011. The Reds finished the game with just 5 hard-hit balls to the Phillies’ 13.
Philadelphia will come back tonight with another left-hander in 27-year-old Cristopher Sanchez, who owns a 2.95 ERA across his first 4 outings and has allowed 1 earned run across 6.0 innings in back-to-back outings. Much like Suarez, Sanchez does a great job at keeping batted balls on the ground — posting a 62.7% ground ball rate along with a hard-hit rate in the 77th percentile. In his first start of the season against the Reds, Sanchez allowed 2 earned runs on 5 hits, 1 walk and 8 strikeouts over 5.0 innings of work.
Tonight will serve as a starting pitching rematch of that game, as Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott takes the mound. Abbott pitched a solid game himself and allowed just 2 earned runs on 3 hits, 2 walks and 4 strikeouts over 5.1 innings. On the year Abbott owns a 2.70 ERA, 3.32 xERA and a hard-hit rate in the 90th percentile. Abbott doesn’t generate many strikeouts or swings and misses, but he induces plenty of weak contact. When these starters last went head-to-head, the game went to extra innings tied at 2 runs apiece before a 5-run 10th inning resulted in the game total going over. If not for extras, these starters would be a combined 6-2 in favor of the under — which is where I’m going with this first leg.
Read our full Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds predictions
Seattle Mariners -1.5 over Texas Rangers (+138)
Another team that has played fairly well of late are the Seattle Mariners, who are 5-1 over their last 6 games while outscoring their opponents 35-9. This comes after a slow 6-10 start to the season in which Seattle frequently struggled at the plate. The bats have woken up for the Mariners, who are slashing .291/.389/.461 over their last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers are just 3-3 over their last 6 games after dropping 2 out of 3 on the road against the Atlanta Braves. Texas salvaged the series with a 6-4 win on Sunday Night Baseball, but like the Mariners they’re not off to a strong start — sitting 1 game above .500.
Starting for the Rangers tonight is right-hander Dane Dunning, who posts a 3.91 ERA across 4 outings. While that might look decent on paper, there are some major concerns surrounding Dunning when we dig a little deeper. To start, Dunning has given up at least 1 home run in each of his starts and 5 total on the year. Dunning’s walk numbers are also deeply troubling; he has walked 13 batters and hit another 3 in just 23.0 innings of work. On top of that, Dunning owns a barrel rate in the 3rd percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 6th percentile — bringing his 3.91 actual ERA up to a 6.81 xERA. There is some expected regression to come from Dunning with these numbers.
Seattle certainly has an edge in the starting pitching department with Logan Gilbert on the hill. Through 4 starts Gilbert owns a 2.33 ERA and 3.67 xERA while posting career-bests in strikeout rate (29.0%), walk rate (4.0%) and hard-hit rate (41.8%). He has posted back-to-back 1-run outings, going 7.2 innings in Toronto and 6.2 innings against the Reds with a combined 14 strikeouts and 2 walks. Aside from an advantage in starting pitching, the Mariners have one of the best performing bullpens in baseball thus far. Seattle’s bullpen ranks 3rd with a 2.69 ERA compared to Texas, whose ‘pen ranks 23rd with a 4.86 ERA. I’ll back the surging Seattle offensive along with edges in both starting and relief pitching to take care of business and cover the run line.
Read our full Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers predictions
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over Los Angeles Angels (+104)
Lastly, I’ll be backing the Baltimore Orioles on the run line as they take on the Los Angeles Angels in the second game of a 3-game set. Baltimore has won 7 of its last 8 games while covering the run line in all 7 wins. Meanwhile, the Angels have begun to skid having lost their last 5 games — 4 of which have been by multiple runs. Following a promising 8-8 start to the season, the Angels are now 5 games under .500 at 9-14. The pitching matchup for tonight is between Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez and Angels starter Griffin Canning, with the matchup seemingly falling in favor of Baltimore.
In just his second MLB season, 24-year-old Grayson Rodriguez is turning out to be a great one-two punch alongside Corbin Burnes, who the Orioles traded for in early February. Over his first 4 starts, Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA while going at least 5.2 innings and allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in each start. The consistency thus far from Rodriguez is what separates himself from Griffin Canning of the Angels. Canning is coming off a solid outing against the Tampa Bay Rays in which he gave up just 2 earned runs, but in his 3 starts prior he allowed a total of 15 earned runs on 21 hits across just 13.2 innings, leaving him with a 9.88 ERA. Baltimore is a dangerous lineup for Canning, especially as he’s posting career-worst marks in strikeout rate (18.2%), ground-ball rate (32.3%) and barrel rate (12.3%). My confidence in Canning isn’t high at the moment, so I’ll take the O’s to grab an early lead and hold on to it.
Read our full Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels predictions
