Kyle Lupas
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Now that we’re in the fourth week of the MLB season, it’s becoming more and more clear what to expect from many of these ballclubs going forward. We’ve seen some unexpected teams come out and overperform, such as the Pirates and the Royals. We’ve also gotten a glimpse at a handful of teams that have struggled to come out on the winning side, examples include the Rockies, Marlins, and White Sox. Therefore, for this 3-team parlay, I’m fading two of the worst teams in baseball and picking an underdog to close out the day.
Below I’ll provide a breakdown of each individual leg and don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Giants -1.5 (+126)
Royals -1.5 (-114)
Reds ML (+110)
MLB Parlay Odds: +790
San Francisco Giants -1.5 over Miami Marlins (+126)
The 7-10 San Francisco Giants are likely to be chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers for much of the season along with every other team in the NL West. That makes this series with the 3-14 Miami Marlins crucial, as the Giants will need to compile wins over teams they’re expected to beat. San Fran took care of business in the series opener with a 4-3 victory, and I like their chances again tonight given the starting pitching matchup at hand. Jordan Hicks will take the ball for San Francisco in his 4th start of the season, and the move from the bullpen to the starting rotation appears to have been a great decision to this point. Hicks has lasted at least 5.0 innings in each of his outings and has hardly taken any damage, giving up just 2 earned runs across 18.0 innings. The walk rate (4.5%) is way down from his career mark of 12.3%, and while the strikeout numbers aren’t quite as impressive as they were when Hicks came out of the pen, he’s been effective in limiting hard contact and inducing ground balls. Hicks should be quite effective against a Marlins team that has the second-lowest OPS at .598.
The Marlins will counter with left-hander Ryan Weathers, who has posted great numbers across 3 outings himself. Weathers owns a 2.57 ERA, which is great on paper, but it’s not indicative to how he’s actually performed. Weathers has failed to make it past the 5th inning in any of those starts and walks appear to be a major issue, as he’s walked 8 batters in just 14.0 innings. Taking a look at Weather’s advanced metrics is quite telling, as he ranks in the bottom 10 percentile in both chase rate and barrel rate. Perhaps most notable is the fact that his 6.06 xERA is nearly 3.5 runs higher than his actual ERA and Weathers owns a career ERA of 5.61 through 170.0 innings in the big leagues. It’s fair to say some regression is looming and for that reason I’ll back the Giants on the road.
Kansas City Royals -1.5 over Chicago White Sox (-114)
The Kansas City Royals might be one of the most pleasant surprises in the MLB to begin the year. They’re 11-6 to begin the season, 9-2 over their last 11 games, and swept the Houston Astros in a 3-game set last week. The Royals have also beaten up on the White Sox thus far, going a perfect 5-0 head-to-head while outscoring them 22-5, including a pair of shutouts and 1-run games from Chicago. The White Sox have been the worst offensive team this season and it’s not even particularly close. Through 16 games, they’ve scored a grand total of 34 runs (14 runs separate them from the A’s with 48) and have been shutout or held to 1 run 9 times already. Trying to find a path to offensive production for the White Sox is a rather difficult task considering their 2 top hitters in Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez have been out with injuries. On the bright side, it does appear Jimenez will be back in the lineup tonight for what it’s worth.
The Royals will turn to Brady Singer tonight and he’s been awfully impressive to begin his season. The 27-year-old right hander owns a 0.98 ERA through 3 starts and limited the White Sox to 1 earned run on 2 hits on April 5 in a game the Royals would win 2-1. Meanwhile, Jonathan Cannon will make his Major League debut for the White Sox in what’ll likely be a spot start, giving some extra rest to the rest of the rotation. Cannon posted a 2.79 ERA with 11 strikeouts and 5 walks with the Triple-A Charlotte Knights this season. Cannon will need to be nearly flawless given the White Sox lineup hasn’t provided much run support, and that’s not something I’m willing to bet on. Back the Royals to get their 6th consecutive win over the Sox to begin the year.
Cincinnati Reds ML over Seattle Mariners (+110)
For the final leg of this parlay, we head to Seattle for game 2 of a 3-game set between the Mariners and the visiting Cincinnati Reds. The Reds had their 3-game winning streak snapped in yesterday’s 9-3 loss and couldn’t come through with runners in scoring position, finishing the day 1-for-6. That being said, the Reds have some advantages over the Mariners offensively, beating them in team batting average, home runs, and OPS where they rank 6th. Both teams will have right-handers on the hill to start and it’s worth noting the Mariners’ struggles against righties. As a team, Seattle ranks 29th in batting average and 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching.
The Mariners will be going up against 24-year-old flame thrower Hunter Greene, which isn’t an ideal matchup when facing issues against righties. Through 3 outings Greene owns a 4.86 ERA, in large part because of his last start against the Brewers in which he surrendered 6 earned runs over 6.0 innings of work. The biggest knock on Greene has been his inconsistency, but his ability to rack up strikeouts has never been an issue. Greene still sat down 9 batters in that outing against Milwaukee and has 22 strikeouts through 16.2 innings. Through his first 3 seasons, Greene hasn’t ranked below the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate.
Cincinnati will counter with Logan Gilbert, who has been much more consistent than Greene throughout his career, but doesn’t possess the same level of strikeout ability. Gilbert has recorded 7 or more strikeouts in each of his first 3 outings, but history would suggest his strikeout rate is going to dip closer to 24% from his current 29.9% rate thus far. Gilbert’s 3.54 xERA is also nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA and his 9.8% barrel rate is the highest of his career. The starting pitching matchup is relatively even, but Cincinnati’s lineup has performed better than Seattle and that should be the difference in this game.
