Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball taking place on Tuesday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +773 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. We’ve already hit a pair of Same Game Parlays over the last few days, can we add a mega parlay to that tally? Let’s find out! Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Tuesday.
Mets ML (-130)
Rays -1.5 (+110)
Brewers -1.5 (+135)
MLB parlay odds: +773
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New York Mets ML over New York Yankees (-130)
To start off this mega parlay, I’m going with the Mets on the money line. Things are getting pretty desperate for both teams as the trade deadline nears, but the Mets should feel confident with Justin Verlander on the mound. The future Hall-of-Famer currently sits in the 72nd percentile for xBA, 75th percentile for xSLG and 58th percentile for walk rate. He’s also turned things around lately after a mediocre start, posting a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the month of July. I’ve harped on about how hapless the Yankees lineup has looked without Aaron Judge over the last 6 weeks, and I don’t see that changing against Verlander.
Opposing Verlander will be Domingo German, who has regressed back to his prior form after tossing a perfect game against the A’s on June 28. German holds a 5-6 record with a 4.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. His advanced metrics are also relatively average, as he sits in the 62nd percentile for xBA, 45th percentile for xSLG, 63rd percentile for strikeout percentage and 56th percentile for walk rate. The Mets’ offense hasn’t been stellar by any means lately, but they should still find a way to do damage against the struggling right-hander.
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Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 over Miami Marlins (+110)
For the second leg of this mega parlay, I’m backing the Rays on the run line. Miami is sending Edward Cabrera to the mound, who holds a 5-5 record with a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His advanced metrics are solid on paper, ranking in the 90th percentile for xBA, 84th percentile for K percentage and 77th percentile for xSLG. However, most of that success has come within the friendly confines of his home ballpark. Cabrera has a sparkling 5-0 record with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at home, but he’s just 0-5 with a 5.93 ERA away from Miami, which bodes well for the Rays at the Trop.
Tampa Bay has been struggling mighty of late, relinquishing a once-dominant lead in the AL East as the Rays now trail the Orioles by 2.5 games. Tyler Glasnow should be the guy to get his team back on track, as he pitched very well in his last outing and sits in the 97th percentile for K percentage. Glasnow has been struggling with average exit velocity (15th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (15th percentile), but the Marlins as a team are not exactly a power-hitting threat. With 5 consecutive outings allowing 3 or fewer runs, it’s hard not to like Glasnow and company to take the first game of this series against the struggling Marlins.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over Cincinnati Reds (+135)
To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the Brewers on the run line. Milwaukee has been absolutely surging over the past month, which has propelled the Brewers into 1st place in the NL Central. After a walk-off victory on Monday night, Milwaukee now holds a 1.5-game lead for the division crown, and its winning ways should continue with Corbin Burnes on the mound in this one. Burnes doesn’t allow hard contact — which is essential against this hot Reds lineup — as his average exit velocity, hard hit rate and xSLG numbers are terrific. On the other side, Andrew Abbott’s xERA is over a full point higher than his current ERA, so he’s due for some major regression as well. Back the Brew Crew to stay hot at home.
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