MLB Tuesday parlay at mega +575 odds today 9/17: Runs expected in Miami

Following a lighter Monday slate of baseball, the MLB action is jam-packed on Tuesday, as we have multiple series that have major playoff implications in both leagues. With all 30 teams in action, there is plenty to attack and craft an MLB parlay. Let’s dive into today’s MLB parlay picks, as games get underway at 6:35 pm ET with the Giants taking on the Orioles and wraps up with Astros vs Padres and Yankees vs Mariners at 9:40 pm ET.  You can also check out all of our MLB picks for the action on Tuesday, September 17.

Dodgers vs Marlins Over 9.5 (+108)

Astros vs Padres Under 7.5 (-120)

Yankees vs Mariners Under 7.5 (-130)

MLB parlay odds: +575

For this MLB parlay, I am going with a bet on the under in a pair of matchups, plus the over between the Dodgers and Marlins. Let’s break down each of the legs.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Over 9.5 (+108)

To start off our MLB parlay, I’m going with the over between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins. I’ve been saying this for weeks now, but the Dodger offense is a completely different beast now that Los Angeles has finally gotten all of its guys back in the lineup after extended periods of inconsistency due to injury. Most of the time, we know what we’re getting with this group on a nightly basis, particularly against an inconsistent pitcher. That’s exactly what we have in Miami when Darren McCaughan (7.06 ERA) takes the mound for the Marlins on Tuesday.

On the other side, Bobby Miller continues to be a massive liability for the Dodgers, but Los Angeles needs him to eat some more innings in the regular season given the extraordinarily unlucky rash of injuries that hit the rotation this summer. Miller has flashes of brilliance for an inning or two, but more often than not he gets rocked by any competent lineup (7.06 xERA, bottom 2 percentile in hard-hit rate, bottom 2 percentile in xBA, bottom 2 percentile in barrel rate). Let’s go with the over, even at this high total.

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Under 7.5 (-120) 

For the second leg of this MLB parlay, I’m going with the under between the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres. Yu Darvish was brilliant for the Padres on Monday and Michael King is looking to follow up that stellar performance with another gem of his own on Tuesday. King’s metrics have been well above average all season long, and it’s certainly showed up in his game log of late, as the right-hander has surrendered just 14 runs over his last 10 outings. King does a terrific job at limiting hard contact (98th percentile in hard-hit rate), which will come in handy against this dangerous Astros lineup. The same can be said for Astros starter Hunter Brown on the other side (97th percentile in hard-hit rate), who has also been dealing over his last 10 outings. Let’s look for another low-scoring affair in San Diego and take the under for Astros vs Padres.

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Under 7.5 (-130) 

To close out this MLB parlay, I’m going with another under, this time between the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners. Both of these teams have little margin for error, whether it’s in the AL East race or the NL West/Wild Card race. Luis Gil gets the ball for the Yankees, and while he was a pitcher I’ve been looking to fade over the past month, Gil has really impressed me recently. After a rough couple of outings, the rookie has allowed just 1 run and a combined 6 hits over his past couple of starts and looks to be rounding back into form.

On the other side, the Mariners offense has been woeful for most of the season, but Seattle has boasted one of the best pitching staffs in baseball all season long. And with Bryan Woo (2.57 xERA, top 1% in walk rate) on the hill, the Mariners should be able to keep this a low-scoring game where Seattle will have the best chance to win. I don’t want to bank on a Mariners win, so let’s take the under 7.5 instead.