It’s time for the next stage of the MLB postseason — the divisional round. Eight teams remain and they will all play on Tuesday, starting with Phillies vs Braves at 1:07 pm ET and concluding with the Padres vs Dodgers at 9:37 pm ET. Although there are only 4 games, that didn’t stop us from creating a 3-leg mega parlay for Tuesday’s action!
But before we dive in, here are all our picks for Tuesday’s MLB playoff games
Houston Astros -1.5 over Seattle Mariners (+110)
Justin Verlander is no stranger to Seattle, having faced the Mariners 6 times during the regular season in their AL West rivalry when he went 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA. Verlander had five starts where he gave up no more than two runs, although he had one outlier performance in May when he gave up 6 runs and 10 hits in 6 innings. However, Seattle only managed a .210 average against the veteran this year, even with that poor outing.
Logan Gilbert will oppose Verlander, and that immediately gives Houston the pitching advantage. Gilbert had a solid season, but he’s been due for negative regression for quite some time now. As one of the strongest fastball-hitting teams in the league, Houston knows to swing early in the count to see Gilbert’s fastball because they faced him 4 times during the regular season. Feel confident backing the Astros by the -1.5 run line, as they have every advantage in this game.
Be sure to check out our full Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros predictions
Cleveland Guardians ML over New York Yankees (+184)
I would give the Yankees the clear offensive advantage, but the pitching matchup might look more lopsided than it is. Gerrit Cole struggled at the end of the season, and if the Guardians can put together a few hits for a run or two, that might be all their bullpen needs. The Guardians bullpen pitched 10.1 scoreless innings in their previous series against the Rays, and since they had a few days off, every arm should be ready and fresh for the ALDS.
A 16.6% strikeout rate, which is around 6% less than the MLB average, shows that Cal Quantrill is not a strikeout pitcher like Shane Bieber or Triston McKenzie. Only 35.7% of the balls put in play against him are deemed hard hit, which takes away New York’s strength because they mostly generate runs through extra-base hits and home homers. The top of the New York lineup is filled with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, who all hit the ball hard, so having a pitcher like Quantrill, who gets a lot of groundouts, is a perfect counter to the Yankees offense. We need a couple of timely hits, but the Guardians are a value play.
Be sure to check out our full Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 over San Diego Padres (-102)
According to Dave Roberts, the Game 1 starter was informed on October 7, but the Dodgers took until late Monday night to announce it to the public. However, we now know it will be Julio Urias. He finished with the lowest ERA in the National League and had a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts against the Padres this season.
The Dodgers were 14-5 against the Padres and outscored them 109-47 (+62 run differential) in the regular season. They were especially good against Mike Clevinger, who will start Game 1 of the NLDS. In 3 starts against Los Angeles this season, Clevinger allowed 14 runs and 16 hits, including 5 home runs in 13 innings. To put it nicely, he was shelled. He’s also never done well at Dodger Stadium, as he has a career 11.25 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP, and that is the Game 1 venue. The Dodgers dominated the Padres in the regular season, and I expect that to continue into the postseason.
Be sure to check out our full San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers predictions
Tuesday’s MLB mega parlay (10/11)
Houston Astros -1.5 (+110)
Cleveland Guardians ML (+184)
LA Dodgers -1.5 (-102)
Parlay odds: +1081
Along with our MLB Futures picks, we offer expert MLB Picks, including our MLB Best Bets throughout the playoffs.
