Kyle Lupas
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We have less than a week remaining in the MLB regular season, but today offers a packed slate filled with 16 games, starting in Colorado and winding down in Seattle. Today I’m leaning on two favorites to cover the run line along with an underdog fighting for a spot in the postseason.
If all goes well and our parlay cashes, expect a generous payout from FanDuel Sportsbook at +1048 odds. Let’s take a closer look at this parlay and be sure to read the entire article for my reasoning and analysis for each individual leg.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Phillies -1.5 (+132)
Rays -1.5 (+125)
Cubs ML (+120)
Parlay Odds: +1048
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (+132)
The Philadelphia Phillies’ magic number is 1, meaning a win over the Pirates tonight or a loss from the Cubs, Marlins or Diamondbacks will clinch a postseason berth for a second consecutive season. I like the Phillies to handle this on their own tonight even though they dropped 2 out of 3 to the Pirates in Pittsburgh in July. This is a much different club now and the Phillies have won 5 consecutive games heading into the series.
Aaron Nola takes the mound tonight, and although it has been a shaky season for the longest-tenured Phillie, his last start against the Braves was encouraging. Nola allowed just 2 earned runs while recording 8 strikeouts across 6.0 innings against the best lineup in baseball. The Pirates are a huge step down from the Braves and I expect Nola to have success.
The Pirates counter with Mitch Keller who, like Nola, has been up and down on the year. Through 31 starts, Keller is pitching to a 4.25 ERA, but a 5.84 ERA through 4 starts in September. Keller has already had 2 starts this month in which he surrendered 7 or more earned runs and he could have trouble navigating through this Phillies’ lineup. Over the Phillies 5-game winning streak they’ve covered the run line twice, but I believe they have a much larger edge offensively over the Pirates than they did against the Braves and Mets. I’ll back the Phillies to cover the run line at plus-money to start our parlay.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 over Boston Red Sox (+125)
For my second pick, we head to Boston where the Red Sox welcome the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays may be without a few starters tonight but getting this team at plus-money is enticing against a Red Sox team who have lost each of their last 6 series, including dropping 2 out of 3 to the Rays. Zach Eflin takes the ball for Tampa Bay and he’s having quite a year after spending his first 7 seasons in Philadelphia. Through 30 starts with the Rays, Eflin is pitching to a career-best 3.44 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Eflin is also posting career-best marks in xERA (3.01), walk rate (3.5%), and xBA (.219). Look for him to deliver a quality outing against a struggling offense.
Boston will counter with Tanner Houck, who owns a career-worst 4.92 ERA in his fourth season with the Red Sox. The potential has always been there for Houck, but this season has been the same old story when it comes providing length. Houck is averaging just over 5 innings per his 19 starts this season, mainly due to his struggles once he gets deeper into games. Most pitchers numbers aren’t as great the second or third time through a lineup as they are the first time through, but for Houck they jump off the page. Houck is posting a 2.05 ERA through the first 3 innings of games, but that number balloons to 8.54 from innings 4 through 6. It’s hard to trust Houck deep into games, and for that reason I’m backing the Rays on the road.
Chicago Cubs over Atlanta Braves (+120)
My third and final pick comes in Atlanta, where the Braves host the Chicago Cubs for the first of 3 games. The Braves have long clinched the NL East, but the Cubs hold just a 1-game lead over the Miami Marlins for the final NL wild-card spot. Part of this pick comes down to the fact that the Cubs have much more to play for with just a few games remaining in the season, but I also give the Cubs a significant pitching advantage with left-hander Justin Steele on the hill. Steele has turned out another phenomenal season for the Cubs, posting an even 3.00 ERA across 29 starts. His walk rate is at just 5.0% and he avoids barrels with his 5.2% barrel rate. Avoiding walks and barrels could be the key to getting through this monstrous Braves’ lineup.
For the Braves, right-hander Bryce Elder takes the mound, posting a 3.63 ERA across 30 starts. While Elder’s ERA is certainly respectable, I’m not quite sold on him yet. Elder has posted ERAs north of 4.50 in each of the past 3 months and control of his pitches has become a major concern. Elder has walked 3 or more batters in 4 of his last 7 starts, including 5 against the Phillies in his last start. Elder lasted just 3.2 innings that game after allowing 4 earned runs, including 2 home runs. Elder started the season hot, but he’s pitching much more in line with his 4.46 xERA of late, and I like the Cubs to get some early runs tonight.
You can also read our expert’s MLB Best Bets and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets for Tuesday’s slate
