The MLB slate is back to full strength following the smaller travel day on Monday. All 30 teams will be taking the field to start or or continue a series that began yesterday, and just glancing at the slate, I see a ton of edges. I’ve combined 3 of my favorite picks into a parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Tuesday.
Rockies ML (+170)
Pirates ML (+115)
Cubs ML (-105)
Parlay odds: +1033
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Colorado Rockies ML (+170) over Cleveland Guardians
Bear with me on this one because although Colorado has been terrible recently, they have tremendous value on Tuesday night. The Rockies had lost 10 of their last 11 games before Monday night, and their only win in that time came with Ryan Feltner on the mound. I was very low on Feltner last season because he had a 5.83 ERA and wasn’t a swing-and-miss type of pitcher. And although he has a 6.16 ERA through 4 starts, he’s actually been far better than last season. From last season to now, he’s gone from the 15th to 77th percentile in hard-hit rate, 19th to 71st percentile in xBA and 4th to 61st percentile in chase rate. Those are just some of the categories he’s improved in, and Feltner will be facing a Guardians lineup that was shut out by Austin Gomber and the below-average Rockies bullpen on Monday.
I’m very worried about Cleveland’s offense. The top four in their lineup were key to their success last year, and fast forward to their season, and Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez and Josh Bell are combining to hit .248. Even more concerningly, they managed only 3 hits against Gomber last night. No disrespect to Gomber, but he’s statistically one of the worst pitchers in baseball. The Guardians lineup finished with just 4 hits against Gomber and a Colorado bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA, so it’s safe to say they don’t inspire a lot of confidence right now. Maybe the Rockies lineup has woken up, but either way, Feltner is undervalued at +170 odds.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+115) over Los Angeles Dodgers
The rebuild is officially over in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 16-7, rank 8th in OPS, 8th in starting rotation ERA and 12th in bullpen ERA – they have all the makings of a good baseball team. They also had a well-earned day off on Monday after 17 straight days on the field. That means they come into this series fresh and ready to continue their magical start to the season with Johan Oviedo on the mound. Oviedo is one of the most exciting young arms the Pirates have had in a long time, and he’s been a huge success so far this season. In 24.1 innings, Oviedo has a 2.22 ERA with a 2.75 xERA and has allowed 1 run or less in 3 consecutive outings. Besides missing barrels and avoiding being hard hit, one of Oviedo’s strengths is being efficient, and he’s shown that by completing at least 6 innings in all 3 of his recent starts.
Noah Syndergaard hasn’t had a terrible start to his Dodgers career with a 4.91 ERA in 4 starts. And although his numbers have improved since last season, Thor is still just an average pitcher. There isn’t anything special that stands out about him, and I believe he’s the second-best pitcher in this matchup. I also believe the Dodgers’ offense is wildly overrated considering they’re hitting .215 with just a .298 on-base percentage in the last two weeks. It’s also important to note that Max Muncy, who leads the MLB in home runs, will miss this series in Pittsburgh due to being on paternity leave. That’s a huge bat missing from L.A.’s lineup, and I’m more than willing to continue backing the Pirates at plus odds.
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Chicago Cubs ML (-105) over San Diego Padres
Surprise surprise, Blake Snell has control problems. In just 18 innings, Snell has allowed 13 walks and 4 home runs. His 6.00 ERA isn’t great, but it only gets worse to see he has a career-high 6.86 xERA and 1.89 WHIP in just 4 outings. Not surprisingly, the Padres are 0-4 in Snell’s starts this season, with an average losing margin of 4 runs per game. The only categories the lefty has been above-average in have been whiff rate and strikeout rate due to his slider and curveball combination. The problems for Snell arise when opponents don’t whiff since hitters have a .292 batting average and .282 xBA against him. And to make matters worse, he will face a Cubs offense that has been excellent against southpaws this season, ranking 6th in batting average, 7th in on-base percentage and 6th in wRC+.
Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele are in a dogfight for the title of Cubs ace, as both starters have been fantastic in the first few weeks. Steele in particular, considering he has a 1.44 ERA and has allowed 1 earned run or less in 3 of his 4 starts this year. The lefty has exceeded all expectations set for him thus far since he ranks in the 91st percentile for hard-hit rate, 87th percentile for barrel rate and 74th percentile in xERA. Steele succeeds because he keeps the ball on the ground, proven by his 58.1% ground ball rate and his superb slider that has opponents hitting 2-for-33 (.061). He’s the perfect match for a Padres team that will try to lift the ball against him for extra-base hits. With a huge pitching advantage and the better offense at the plate, I’m taking the Cubs at a near-even price.
Check out our San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs predictions
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