Andrew Ortenberg
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And just like that, we’re back. The 2022 MLB season is officially here, and Opening Day should be a ton of fun. We’ve got a bunch of interesting matchups, including this NL contest between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves. It should be a great one, televised nationally by ESPN2.
What better way to celebrate this nationally televised showdown than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
Atlanta Braves -3.5 alt run line (+260)
Max Fried to record 7+ strikeouts (+210)
Over 8.5 (-106)
Parlay odds: +1517
We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out just north of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
Atlanta Braves -3.5 alt run line (+260)
To start this same game parlay off we’ve got the Braves on an alt run line. I’m just not expecting much from Cincinnati this year. The Reds were already a disappointment last season, and then they traded away guys like Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker and Sonny Gray. Those moves pretty clearly indicate they aren’t all-in on winning this season. Tyler Mahle will get the start for Cincy and he’s coming off a career year where he put up a 3.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
That felt like a fluke to me. His ERAs in his previous two full seasons were 5.14 and 4.98. The Braves will be looking to make a statement here as they start their defense of their World Series title, and I expect them to put on a show. Freddie Freeman is gone but Atlanta did plenty to replace him, including trading for slugger Matt Olson who hit 39 dingers last year.
Max Fried to record 7+ strikeouts (+210)
This correlates nicely with the first leg of our same game parlay. If the Braves are winning big then Fried likely had a pretty good day. And there are reasons to believe this Reds lineup might have trouble hitting him. Last year, Cincy really struggled against southpaws like Fried. Their team OPS was .785 against right-handers, but just .685 against lefties. At home their OPS was .816, but on the road it was just .704.
Fried isn’t the most dominant strikeout pitcher, but he’s certainly capable of racking them up in a hurry. To finish last season he got to at least 7 strikeouts in 7 of his last 19 starts. He got to at least 6 in 11 of those 19. At +210, a bet only has to cash 32.3 percent of the time to be profitable.
Over 8.5 (-106)
To wrap this same game parlay up and hopefully bring us home, we’ve got the over 8.5 game total. I just laid out above why I’m skeptical of Mahle, and even last year his advanced metrics weren’t that great. Freeman or no Freeman this Braves offense still has plenty of pop with guys like Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall. Fried certainly wasn’t flawless last year, and the Reds should be able to get at least a couple runs off him. The Reds’ bullpen could be a disaster this year as well, so I don’t think we’ll have much difficulty clearing nine runs.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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