We still have a lot of baseball left this week and we have a solid slate of 10 MLB games today, but there’s one player prop that I really like. Before that, be sure to check out our full game previews for tonight’s matchups.
I’ve started this season 5-1 on MLB player props, so let’s go for win #6!
Aaron Civale (CLE) under 3.5 strikeouts (+112)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Aaron Civale has never been a strikeout-first type of pitcher, and that has stayed true in 2022. He has recorded 3 or fewer strikeouts in 3 of his 4 outings this season, which gives this under some value at plus-odds. The righty has had a tough time getting opponents to swing and miss this season as he ranks in the 14th percentile for whiff rate and 44th percentile for chase rate.
His 6-pitch arsenal has not been too effective since he has a 10.67 ERA in 4 starts this season, but he also has an 11.5% barrel rate, which is far too high for a starting pitcher. Civale’s 18.9% strikeout rate this season is on pace to be the lowest of his career and the Blue Jays won’t help Civale improve it. In 14 plate appearances against him, the Toronto lineup has struck out only once.
The Blue Jays struck out only 7 times in yesterday’s series finale against the Yankees, which is impressive considering they faced Nestor Cortes, Michael King and Clay Holmes. Getting Civale to stay under 3.5 strikeouts at plus odds is worth the value since he is facing a Blue Jays team that does not strike out a ton. Back Civale to stay under his strikeout total.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians game.
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