Caleb Wilfinger
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The MLB season continues on America’s Independence Day with another exciting 15-game slate on the Fourth of July. With every team in action across the league, there is plenty to attack and craft an MLB parlay. Let’s dive into today’s MLB parlay picks, with games getting underway at 11:10 am ET as the Mets take on the Nationals, while action concludes with the Diamondbacks taking on the Dodgers at 9:10 pm ET. You can also check out all of our MLB picks for the action on Thursday, July 4.
Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
Orioles -1.5 (+125)
Yankees -1.5 (+120)
MLB parlay odds: +915
For today’s MLB parlay, I am going with a bet on the Red Sox, Orioles and Yankees to each win by multiple runs. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Boston Red Sox -1.5 over Miami Marlins (+105)
To start our MLB parlay, I’m going with the Boston Red Sox on the run line. Boston has been a much better team than many expected at this point, particularly over the past month as we approach the all-star break. The Red Sox just rolled past the lowly Marlins on Wednesday and that momentum should continue on Thursday with Nick Pivetta on the mound. While Pivetta’s metrics don’t look like anything special on paper, his advanced numbers do suggest that he’s due for a bit of positive regression (3.92 xERA, top 20% strikeout rate). And there couldn’t be a better team to get right against than the Marlins, as Miami’s offense is 29th in baseball in home runs, runs driven in, SLG, OBP and OPS this season. On the other side, Boston’s bats should do more than enough to allow Pivetta and the bullpen to pitch with the lead, so let’s back the Red Sox to win comfortably in this one.
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over Seattle Mariners (+125)
For the second leg of our MLB parlay, I’m going with the Orioles on the run line. Baltimore got the better of Seattle as they beat them 4-1 on Wednesday, and the Orioles are in a great position to win again today with their ace taking the mound against a Mariners offense that is still struggling mightily to generate runs consistently against most of its opponents. In fact, the Mariners lineup is 30th in batting average, 27th in OPS, SLG and runs scored on the season. That’s not exactly where you want to be as a division leader and a contender in the American League. I expect a strong outing from Corbin Burnes (2.28 ERA, top 15% in walk rate, hard hit rate xERA and chase rate) and for Baltimore’s lineup to find enough success against Bryce Miller, whose 4.21 xERA and other poor advanced metrics suggest that he should struggle against an elite Orioles unit. Let’s back the birds out west in our MLB parlay picks.
New York Yankees -1.5 over Cincinnati Reds (+120)
To close out today’s MLB parlay, I’m backing the Yankees on the run line. New York has already dropped the first couple of games in this series and the sky could be falling in the Bronx if the Yankees don’t right the ship this weekend against a red-hot Red Sox team. But before we can get to that series, I’ll be looking to take Aaron Judge and company against the Reds in this series finale. Frankie Montas has largely been an average pitcher this season, but he doesn’t profile as a guy who will be successful against New York in this one. Furthermore, his xERA of 4.53 and very poor hard-hit rate, xBA and strikeout metrics are worrisome against a lineup that is extremely boom-or-bust at the moment with their home run threats at the top. As long as Marcus Stroman can keep the ball in the park on the other side, the Yankees should exit this series with a 2+ run victory to stem the tide.
