Kyle Lupas
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We’re getting closer and closer to the postseason, and this Thursday brings a 12-game slate that starts in Detroit and wraps up in Seattle. Today I’m leaning on two favorites to cover the run line along with an underdog fighting for a spot in the postseason. If all goes well and our parlay cashes, expect a generous payout from FanDuel Sportsbook at +906 odds.
Let’s take a closer look at this parlay and be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Phillies -1.5 (-105)
Marlins -1.5 (+128)
Cubs ML (+126)
Parlay odds: +906
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (-105)
My first leg of this parlay is in Philadelphia, where the Phillies look to complete a 3-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phillies walked things off in extra-innings on Tuesday, clinching a playoff berth for the second consecutive year, then came back from a 5-0 deficit yesterday despite having only 2 of their everyday starters on the field. If the Phillies can beat the Pirates in a hangover game, then I give them the upper hand tonight, especially with a lopsided starting pitching matchup. The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the mound, and he has looked extremely sharp since the All-Star break. Wheeler owns a 3.64 ERA on the season and an even better 3.12 ERA across his last 13 outings, 12 of which have gone at least 6.0 innings. One of those starts was against the Pirates and Wheeler surrendered just 1 earned run on 3 hits, 1 walk, and 11 strikeouts.
Countering for the Pirates is right-hander Luis L. Ortiz, who has bounced around between the Pirates and their Triple-A affiliate the Indianapolis Indians. Ortiz has appeared in 17 games for the Pirates this season (14 starts) while pitching to a 4.96 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Since Ortiz was recalled by the Pirates on August 23, he has posted a 5.14 ERA in 6 appearances and 28.0 innings. Control has been the biggest issue for Ortiz, as he has walked 20 batters in those 28.0 innings, with just 21 strikeouts to go along with it. I can’t foresee Ortiz putting together a quality start against a lineup that’s getting hot at the right time. Give me Wheeler and the Phillies to cover the run line.
Miami Marlins -1.5 over New York Mets (+128)
For the second leg of this parlay, let’s back the Miami Marlins to cover the run line and win their series against the New York Mets. The Marlins and Mets split their doubleheader yesterday, and with another loss from the Chicago Cubs, the Marlins are now tied for the third and final NL wild card. Left-hander Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for Miami and is pitching to a respectable 3.73 ERA across 31 starts this season. Luzardo has been extremely efficient down the stretch however, and if you remove his start on September 11 in which he surrendered 6 earned runs, Luzardo has gone at least 5.0 innings while giving up no more than 3 earned runs in his previous 5 starts. Luzardo’s chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate are all well above average and I’d trust him to find success against the Mets.
The Mets counter with a left-hander of their own in 28-year-old David Peterson. Through 20 starts and 26 total appearances, Peterson is pitching to a 5.37 ERA and a career-worst 1.60 WHIP. Peterson was extremely effective across July and August but has quickly regressed through 4 starts in September. Peterson owns a 5.95 ERA in September and has made it through 6.0 full innings just once. I trust Luzardo much more than I do Peterson in this game given the inconsistency Peterson has displayed this season. For that reason, I’m backing the Marlins to cover the run line on the road and make a last-minute push towards the postseason.
You can also read today’s top MLB player props and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
Chicago Cubs over Atlanta Braves (+126)
For the third and final leg of this parlay, I’m again backing the Chicago Cubs over the Atlanta Braves. I backed the Cubs on Tuesday night, and if not for some late defensive mishaps they likely would have held on for the win after quickly jumping out to a 6-0 lead. After devastating 1-run losses on back-to-back nights, I think the Cubs can rise to the occasion and avoid being swept tonight. That’s mainly because they’ll have right-hander Marcus Stroman on the mound, who I trust in a must-win scenario. Stroman is pitching to a 3.88 ERA across 24 starts this season, but was in early-season Cy Young discussions after posting a 2.47 ERA across his first 17 starts. Since then, Stroman has struggled through injuries and had a July to forget after posting a 9.11 ERA across 6 starts.
Since his return on September 15 from a right hip injury that sidelined him for roughly 6 weeks, Stroman has made 2 relief appearances and 1 start which came last Saturday. Stroman allowed 3 earned runs across 3.0 innings on 64 total pitches. In a must-win situation, I’d expect Stroman’s pitch count to not be as much as a concern if he gets off to a hot start. For the Braves, it’ll be their #1 prospect in AJ Smith-Shawver taking the start. Smith-Shawver has pitched just 21.2 innings for the Braves this season and tonight marks his first start for Atlanta since July 30. The first 2 outings for Smith-Shawver couldn’t have gone much better after posting 7.2 scoreless innings, however over his next 14.0 innings, he surrendered 11 earned runs and 7 home runs. Smith-Shawver has dominated at the minor-league level this season, but it’s too early for me to back him in a game that the Cubs desperately need to win.
