Kevin Davies
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Baseball is on all day today as the Brewers and Pirates kick things off in Pittsburgh shortly after noon, and the Athletics and Yankees conclude the night with a 7:05 pm ET start in the Bronx. Here’s my 3-leg MLB parlay for today’s action, featuring 2 teams on the run line and 1 underdog on the money line. You can also find out our MLB picks for every game today.
Brewers -1.5 (+138)
Phillies -1.5 (+100)
Cubs ML (+110)
MLB parlay odds: +899
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Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (+138)
The supposed ace of the Pirates has not lived up to expectations this season. Mitch Keller has been the rock of the Pirates’ rotation for the last few years, but it appears that he’s taken a step back in 2024. Through 5 starts, Keller has a 4.80 ERA and 4.67 xERA. Perhaps the most worrisome stat is that Keller is not getting as many whiffs as usual. He owns an 18.9% strikeout rate while also ranking in the 39th percentile in whiff rate. If he continues to give up hard contact and fails to get whiffs, the Brewers should be able to score runs in bunches against Keller.
Freddy Peralta is having a much, much different season than Keller. In his first 4 starts of the year, Peralta owns a 1.90 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP as he’s shut down a few elite lineups already. The ace has looked fabulous against the Mets, Mariners and Orioles, and the Pirates rank below all 3 of those teams in OPS against right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, Milwaukee ranks 2nd in OPS and 3rd in on-base percentage against right-handers in 2024. Keep fading Keller until he shows any signs of improvement.
Read our full Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Cincinnati Reds (+100)
Two words: Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia’s ace has been phenomenal through the first month of the season as he owns a 2.30 ERA and 2.32 xERA in 5 starts. Along with that, he owns a 30.2% strikeout rate which is a career-high. Wheeler is getting more swings and misses than ever, and that’s going to be crucial against a Reds lineup that does plenty of damage at the top of the lineup. Plus, Wheeler has already faced the Reds this season, and he surrendered just 1 earned run and 4 hits while striking out 10 in 6 innings. If he can have a similar outing on Thursday, it’s going to be tough for the Reds to stay competitive.
Cincinnati will start Nick Martinez, who has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen this year. His first 2 appearances were starts, and he allowed 8 runs and 14 hits in just 10 innings against the Nationals and Mets. His next 2 outings were as a long reliever, and he was much better in those appearances. That’s because Martinez struggles when hitters get 2-3 at-bats against him. I’m expecting Cincy to try and get 5 or so innings out of him on Thursday, and that should provide more than enough opportunities for Philadelphia to score.
Read our full Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds predictions
Chicago Cubs ML over Houston Astros (+110)
The oddsmakers continue to value the Astros as the team they used to be, not the team they are now. Houston has been one of the worst teams in all of baseball and even finds itself behind the Athletics in the AL West standings. The only silver lining for the Astros has been the return of Justin Verlander, who made his season debut last week after missing the start of the season with a shoulder injury. Verlander looked solid against the Nationals last Friday, but the Nats’ lineup is completely different from Chicago’s.
The Cubs got some tough news yesterday as Cody Bellinger will be sidelined for the next few weeks with a rib injury. Even without the power bat in the lineup, the Cubs still have the talent to beat Verlander and a terrible Houston bullpen. Plus, Chicago is starting Javier Assad, who has been a pleasant surprise in 2024. Assad owns a 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through 4 starts, and he’s yet to allow more than 4 hits in an outing. His ability to get weak contact and avoid getting barreled has been his key to success early on, and if he can continue that against a struggling Houston lineup, the Cubs are more than capable of completing the upset.
