We continue the week with an action-packed Thursday slate of games in the MLB. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +848 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. We cashed our MLB mega parlay yesterday at +943 odds and today I’ll look to make it 2 in a row. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Thursday.
Padres vs Giants alternate total under 7.5 (+128)
Pirates ML (+108)
Mariners vs Yankees alternate total under 7.5 (+100)
MLB Parlay odds: +848
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San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants under 7.5 (+128)
What has gotten into Blake Snell? The lefty was 0-3 with a 5.30 ERA in April and his control issues were worse than ever. He was giving up 3 or more walks in nearly every outing and was not the same pitcher we’re used to seeing. However, the lefty has been a completely different pitcher in the last few weeks. He’s allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 30 innings, which spans over 5 starts. Not only that, but Snell has surrendered 4 hits or less in all 5 of those outings, so it’s not like he’s been getting too lucky either. In short, the Padres finally have the Snell they’ve wanted.
Alex Wood has been riddled with injuries this season, but he’s back in the rotation and coming off his best start of the season. Wood injured his back at the end of May and missed the next few weeks before returning for San Francisco’s rivalry series against the Dodgers. The southpaw threw 5 shutout innings and surrendered just 3 hits while not allowing a walk which was a very impressive start since Los Angeles has been crushing lefty pitching in June. As for the Padres, their lineup is slumping in a major way. I’m taking an alternate total to maximize this value.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML over Miami Marlins (+108)
Any time I can get the Pirates with a plus next to their money line with Mitch Keller pitching, I’m taking it. The right-hander has taken a huge step forward in being the ace of the Pirates this season with a 3.62 ERA and a 3.44 xERA in 92 innings. Keller was as consistent as they come for the first two months of the season as he allowed more than 3 runs just once in his first 10 starts. Admittedly, he’s been roughed up a few times in June, but that doesn’t scare me away from a Marlins roster that relies on Luis Arraez a little too much for my liking.
Arraez is one of the few Miami hitters that has not faced Keller before, so if Pittsburgh’s ace can avoid letting the contact machine get his third 5-hit game of the month, I like the Pirates’ chances at an upset.
Braxton Garrett was one of the most hittable starting pitchers in baseball at the beginning of the season. During May, he owned an 0-2 record with a 5.46 ERA and a .282 xBA. Garrett also allowed a 51% hard-hit rate which is far above the 36.1% MLB average this season. His control is great since he doesn’t walk many hitters, but he gets into trouble when he doesn’t get swings and misses on his primary pitch, his slider. As long as the Pirates spit on his slider and wait for his sinker and cutter, they should be able to put up enough runs for Keller.
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Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees under 7.5 (+100)
Bryan Woo had a really, really rough start to his MLB career. The 23-year-old skipped Triple-A on his way to the big leagues and made his MLB debut against the Texas Rangers, who were smashing every pitcher in their way at the time. Not much changed that day either since Texas rocked Woo for 6 runs and 7 hits in just 2 innings. But after that start, Woo settled down.
In his 2 outings since, the Cal Poly alum has given up just 4 runs and 7 hits in 10.1 innings to the Angels and White Sox. He will get an easier assignment on Thursday against the Yankees since New York has just a 70 wRC+ in June — by far the worst in baseball during that time. Not having Aaron Judge has been worse than anyone could have imagined, and it’s a great time to take advantage of that and take the under.
Domingo German was having a fine season until last weekend’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball. He lasted only 2 innings as the Red Sox jumped on him for 7 runs and 7 hits, so the good news from that start was that his pitch count was very low and he should be able to throw around 100 pitches on Thursday. Before Sunday’s outing in Boston, German had allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his previous 7 starts as he was shaping up to be an excellent #2 option behind Gerrit Cole. Between German needing a bounce-back outing and Woo facing a downward-spiraling Yankees offense, the alternate under is my choice for this game.
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