Thursday brings a tiny slate of games as only 12 teams are taking the field. Thursdays are known to be travel days, but only 6 games feels far fewer than normal. Regardless, I’ve taken an edge from half of the games to create today’s MLB mega parlay. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup, but for now, let’s get into Thursday’s MLB mega parlay.
Padres vs Twins under 8.5 (-120)
White Sox -1.5 (+155)
Giants vs Diamondbacks under 9 (-105)
MLB parlay odds: +812
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San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins under 8.5 (-120)
If Bailey Ober can keep this up, the Twins’ rotation would be unfair. The 27-year-old has had a quiet yet successful career thus far, with a 3.51 ERA in 2 full seasons. But this has been his best start to a season yet as Ober has a 0.98 ERA after 3 starts and has surrendered just 14 hits in 18.1 innings. The right-hander might not be well known yet, but his slider might bring him into the spotlight. Ober’s slider, which is more like a frisbee, has limited hitters to a .125 batting average and a .106 xBA, but most impressively, a 45.2% whiff rate. It has 49% more horizontal movement than the average MLB slider, so as you can see, I’m kind of obsessed with it. And fortunately for Ober, he gets to face a Padres lineup that stinks on the road. In 15 away games for San Diego, they have a .213 batting average (3rd-worst) and .669 OPS (5th-worst).
The Padres’ offense hasn’t lived up to the high expectations yet this season, but Yu Darvish has. The ace has a 3.19 ERA paired with a 3.14 xERA and has lowered his xBA to just .199, which puts him into the 84th percentile. But that’s not all that Darvish has been above average at — he ranks in the 78th percentile in xERA, 78th percentile in xSLG and 81st percentile in whiff rate. Darvish has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his 6 starts this season, and I’m expecting him to make it 5 of his last 7 after Thursday. The reason I think that? Minnesota’s offense is in a massive slump. In the last 14 days, the Twins are hitting .189 with a .240 on-base percentage, and each day, the boos are getting louder against Carlos Correa. I’ll take the under in Minnesota.
Chicago White Sox -1.5 over Kansas City Royals (+155)
Just a week or two ago, I was fading the White Sox with any chance I could get. But times have changed, and the White Sox have been somewhat decent recently. However, the real reason I’m backing the Sox is because they’re facing Brady Singer. The supposed Royals ace has been absolutely terrible this season out of nowhere. He was solid in 2022 and then appeared for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, and although his spring training was cut short, there’s still no excuse for his recent outings. Singer ranks in the 1st percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity along with being in the 4th percentile in xSLG, 8th percentile in xBA, 9th percentile in barrel rate and 7th percentile in xERA. In conclusion, his advanced metrics indicate that he’s very, very bad.
Going into Wednesday’s game, the White Sox had just cracked the top 10 in OPS in the last week. Getting Tim Anderson back has been huge for their offensive production, and with Andrew Benintendi and Andrew Vaughn at the top of the order, Chicago’s lineup is respectable. I certainly don’t love putting my faith in Mike Clevinger, but getting to fade Singer at this good of a price is hard to pass up.
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San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondback under 9 (-105)
Alex Cobb is 1 of just 9 pitchers that have thrown a complete game this season. The veteran has found a home in San Francisco after a long career in a few different locations, and the pitching-friendly conditions of Oracle Park are a nice benefit. Last season, Cobb posted a 3.73 ERA with a 3.15 xERA in 149.2 innings, and he’s followed that up with a 2.01 ERA in 7 starts this season. He’s coming off a superb outing against the Brewers as the veteran threw 7 scoreless innings with only 5 hits allowed. Cobb is an excellent pitcher to back when taking an under since he rarely walks anyone and has one of the highest ground-ball rates in baseball.
Although he’s made just 12 MLB starts, Tommy Henry is worth backing on Thursday. The Michigan product is still settling into his role as a member of the Diamondbacks rotation, and he holds one big advantage over this Giants lineup — he’s a lefty. San Francisco has just an 82 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers along with the 2nd-highest strikeout rate. Their lineup smacks right-handers but has a weakness against lefties, so against Henry, I don’t think they’re going to have a ton of success. This game total is far too high, so I’m backing the pitchers and taking the under.
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