Caleb Wilfinger
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Even with a lighter slate of Major League Baseball taking place on Thursday, I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +791 payout at BetMGM Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Thursday.
Rays vs Mets Over 9 (-104)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+146)
Guardians vs White Sox Over 7.5 (-118)
MLB parlay odds: +791
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Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Over 9 (-104)
To start off our mega parlay, we’re going with over 9 runs in the Rays vs Mets matchup. In 2 of Taj Bradley’s 3 MLB starts, he has allowed 3 earned runs, so while the talent is certainly there, the Tampa Bay starter can be exploited. This Mets offense has been extremely frustrating to watch this season. That being said, they walk at the 4th highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking above league average with their 103 wRC+. On the other side, Tylor Megill is not someone I am looking to back. His 4.02 ERA looks better than his 5.89 xERA and 5.24 FIP, plus the Rays mash against right-handed pitching. Both offenses should produce here, so let’s go with the over.
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Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 over New York Yankees (+146)
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m going with the Blue Jays on the run line. The Yankees have been pretty inconsistent on offense the entire year and now they’ll face Jose Berrios, who’s been great as of late. Berrios has given up 2 runs in each of his last 2 starts and is finally pitching consistently after a terrible start to the season. He’ll be opposed by Nestor Cortes, who hasn’t found the recent success that Berrios has had over the last few weeks. Cortes is 3-2 on the year but has a 5.53 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while giving up 6 or more runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Simply put, Berrios is on a much better run than Cortes has been on recently, and the Blue Jays’ offense is more dependable. Therefore, I’ll be backing the Jays in this one.
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Over 7.5 (-118)
For the final leg in this mega parlay, I’m going with the over in this clash between the Guardians and White Sox. Chicago will have Dylan Cease on the mound who has a 4.86 ERA through 9 starts while posting a 2-2 record. On the other side, Logan Allen for the Guardians has a 3.43 ERA through 4 starts with a 1-1 record. Neither of these pitchers are considered aces and both have xERAs higher than their actual ERAs, yet the total for this game is fairly low. Although these lineups aren’t the best in baseball, both of these teams average around 4 runs per game. The over has hit in both games in the series thus far and in 4 of the last 6 games between these teams in general. Therefore, I’ll gladly take the value on the over at the current number.
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