Caleb Wilfinger
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The Major League Baseball season has started off with a bang as the new rules have created more excitement and made the game much quicker. Although we only have 6 games taking place on Thursday, I have looked through today’s MLB slate and found 3 picks that combine for a +740 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for today.
Blue Jays -1.5 (-105)
Braves -1.5 (+130)
Dodgers first 5 innings -0.5 (-115)
MLB parlay odds: +740
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Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 over Kansas City Royals (-105)
To start our mega parlay, we’re going to be backing the Blue Jays on the run line. Toronto is coming off a solid victory over the Royals on Wednesday and I expect that performance to carry over into this series closer. Kevin Gausman will be on the mound for the Blue Jays, and he should hold a significant edge over a Royals lineup that has scored just 1 run over the last 19 innings. The Toronto ace struck out 7 batters in 6 innings of work against a much more difficult Cardinals lineup in his last start, so this should be a welcome reprieve.
On the other side, the Royals will send out Jordan Lyles as their starter — who did have a strong first outing this season but struggled mightily in the 3 seasons prior to this one. Toronto should jump out to an early lead and never look back.
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Atlanta Braves -1.5 over San Diego Padres (+130)
For the second leg of our mega parlay, we’re going with the Braves on the run line. Atlanta came into this season as my favorite to win the World Series and the Braves have looked like a team on a mission in the early going. They started out with a solid series victory over the Nationals before making quick work of the Cardinals in St. Louis. Now, Atlanta will have Spencer Strider on the mound for its home opener against a Padres team that has been inconsistent throughout the first week. Strider was among the top 4% of all qualified starters in xERA, xWOBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage and expected batting average in 2022. His first start of the 2023 campaign saw him strike out 9 Nationals batters while allowing just 3 hits in 6 innings of work.
San Diego will send Blake Snell to the mound, and I actually do think he’ll be able to somewhat keep this vaunted Braves lineup at bay through the first few innings. However, once Snell hits the third time around the order his metrics do fall off dramatically. Furthermore, the Padres bullpen can’t be trusted consistently, as they’ve already shown against the Rockies and Diamondbacks this week. Look for the Braves to win by at least 2 runs on Thursday.
Los Angeles Dodgers first 5 innings run line -0.5 over Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
For the final leg in our mega parlay, we’re going with the Dodgers in the first 5 innings over the Diamondbacks. While the Dodgers aren’t quite the juggernaut of years past, this is still a very good team. Over the first 6 games of the season, Los Angeles ranks 3rd in runs, 2nd in homers and 1st in OPS. The Dodgers have yet to give up more than 4 runs in a game this season, and their starting pitching is why I’m taking them to lead after the first 5 innings in this one.
Dustin May just pitched against the Diamondbacks in his first start of the season and tossed 7 fantastic innings of shutout ball. There’s no reason to think his success against Arizona won’t continue in this outing, especially since opposing starter Merrill Kelly struggled with his command against Los Angeles last week. The Dodgers should scratch across a few runs against Kelly, but I don’t love the idea of relying on their bullpen on the road in what should be a fairly close game. Therefore, I’ll stick to backing Los Angeles in the first 5 innings.
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