Caleb Wilfinger
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Even with only 6 Major League Baseball games taking place on Thursday, there’s still plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +1081 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Thursday.
Twins -1.5 (+140)
Rockies ML (+146)
Phillies vs Mets Under 8.5 (+100)
MLB parlay odds: +1081
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Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+140) over Cleveland Guardians
To start off our mega parlay, we’re going with the Twins on the run line. Cleveland is bringing out another stud from its pitching rotation in Tanner Bibee, who has a 2.88 ERA through 6 starts with a 1-1 record. Bibee was just called up from the minors but has been solid so far and posted a 2.13 ERA while in the minors. He will be opposed by Pablo Lopez for the Twins, who has a 4.11 ERA through 11 starts with a 3-3 record. The Guardians have been carried by their pitching most of the year as their offense has struggled, averaging less than 4 runs per game and with a 0.7 batting fWAR.
The Twins have quite the opposite, averaging over 4 runs per game with a 5.8 batting fWAR, and their hitting is keeping them atop the division. The Guardians are only 3 games back and could make a big swing by winning or sweeping this series, but I think the Twins can make it difficult for them. Lopez has dominated the AL Central and is 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the division. Bibee has also looked great statistically but the Guardians have gone on to lose 4 of his 6 starts and haven’t scored more than 4 runs in any of his starts.
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Colorado Rockies ML (+146) over Arizona Diamondbacks
For the second leg of this parlay, I’ll take a shot with the Rockies on the money line. Chase Anderson gets the start for Colorado, and he’s coming off consecutive victories while allowing only 3 runs through 10.2 innings pitched. Furthermore, his last 3 outings (15.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K’s, 4 BB’s) have all taken place at Coors Field, which is one of the most hitter-friendly parks. It will not be an easy task for Anderson today, but it will be played in somewhat of an easier location at Chase Field.
The Diamondbacks are bringing in Zach Davies to finish this series, but he has struggled to go deep into games over his last few starts. Davies relies heavily on the sinker, throwing it nearly 45% of the time to opposing hitters. The Rockies lineup has a handful of players who can capitalize on Davies’ best pitch, with 5 batters having an xBA higher than .250 against the sinker this season. Therefore, it’s certainly possible that we will see Davies pitch out of his comfort zone in this one. The Rockies’ bats have yet to truly impress since arriving in Arizona, and today may be the day that they do.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Under 8.5 (+100)
To close out our mega parlay, we’re going with the under in this Phillies vs Mets matchup. The Mets are sending Max Scherzer to the mound, who has thrown 3 straight games with no more than 1 run allowed. It appears that Scherzer has now settled in following his suspension, and he is delivering for a Mets team that desperately needs it. The Phillies are starting Taijuan Walker, who has been inconsistent all season, so it’s hard to predict what he will give Philadelphia in this one. But we do know that he is a reliable ground-ball pitcher, and that usually leads to fewer runs scored. I think there is a solid chance that both starters can limit the damage and we play a third consecutive low-scoring game. At plus-money, I’ll gladly take a shot on the under.
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