Thursdays in baseball have gained the reputation for being slower days since most teams have finished their first series of the week and have an off day to travel. That usually leaves us with a smaller slate of games, and to no surprise, this Thursday is no different. There are only 7 MLB games on today but I’ve found 3 edges that I believe make up the perfect parlay. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Thursday.
Twins-Red Sox alternate under 8.5 (+115)
Angels ML (+135)
Pirates -1.5 (+125)
Parlay odds: +1036
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Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox under 8.5 (+115)
Low-scoring games are quite common when the Twins are playing. Before Wednesday’s games, Minnesota had the highest rate of unders in the league at 66.7%. It’s a combination of their stellar pitching rotation, fantastic bullpen and underachieving offense — all key attributes for a low-scoring ballclub. Tuesday’s series opener in Boston was on track to hit the under for the majority of the game as only 4 runs were scored in the first 9 innings, but unfortunately for under bettors, a 5-run 10th inning pushed the total. However, I’m not ready to jump ship on the under for Minnesota games just yet, especially for Thursday’s game.
Kenta Maeda will get the ball for the visitors, and the veteran has been solid through his first 2 starts. His 4.09 ERA does not tell the full story of his season since he has a 2.71 xERA and just a .227 xBA. The total has ended with fewer than 7 runs in both of his starts this season and I expect that to continue against Tanner Houck and the Red Sox. If you’ve never watched Houck pitch before, you’re in for a treat. His slider is a frisbee that has 64% more horizontal movement than the average slider and has generated a 36.7% whiff rate. The 26-year-old relies on a slider-sinker combination for over 50% of his pitches, which has also led to a career-high ground-ball rate that is 21.9% higher than the MLB average. With excellent starting pitchers and below-average offenses, I’ll take an alternate under for Thursday’s game.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for Thursday
Los Angeles Angels ML (+135) over New York Yankees
The Yankees are the favorite, yet if you looked at how each offense has performed against left-handed pitching, you might think the oddsmakers got it wrong. It’s a southpaw showdown in the Bronx as Nestor Cortes will toe the rubber for the Yankees while Patrick Sandoval will be the challenger. Both lefties have been fantastic through the beginning of April with sub-3 ERAs and have been the sidekick to their respective teams’ ace. However, one offense has a huge advantage in this southpaw show. The Angels rank 6th in batting average, 2nd in on-base percentage, 3rd in OPS and 2nd in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. In summary, they’ve been smashing lefties.
The same can’t be said for the Bronx Bombers, who rank 30th in batting average, 20th in OBP, 26th in OPS and 23rd in wRC+ against southpaws. There is a clear offensive advantage at the plate, and it gets even worse for the Yankees when looking at Cortes’ splits. Cortes thrives against left-handed batters because he can get them to chase his cutter and sweeper, but he can be vulnerable against right-handed batters. In fact, right-handed hitters are hitting .292 with a .813 OPS against Cortes this season. Considering the Angels will likely stack a lineup with 8 right-handed hitters, with the exception of Shohei Ohtani of course, they should find success at the plate early and often against Cortes.
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Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+125) over Cincinnati Reds
The Pittsburgh Pirates are absolutely rolling, and I’ve hopped onto the bandwagon. Pittsburgh just swept the Rockies in Colorado without much of a sweat to improve to 12-7. The Pirates’ offense has been a huge surprise in the best way, as they rank 4th in batting average, 3rd in OBP and 2nd in OPS in the last 15 days. In their dominant win over the Rockies yesterday, Pittsburgh had 18 hits and went 7-for-16 with runners in scoring position. The balance in the Pirates’ lineup is arguably their most dangerous feature as the bottom half of their order is far from a pushover, and they proved it on Wednesday as their 5-9 hitters combined to go 10-for-22 with 9 RBIs. Pittsburgh’s starting pitching has also been much better than anticipated, except for Rich Hill, and Roansy Contreras is one of the starters still trying to find his rhythm.
Contreras was a stud for Pittsburgh last season, but his numbers are slightly elevated this season after facing the Red Sox, Astros and Cardinals. However, it could be due to the talent level he’s faced thus far. Those teams previously mentioned rank 8th, 9th and 20th in OPS in the last 15 days compared to the Reds who rank 27th with the 8th most strikeouts in the time. The Reds got blown out in the final 2 games of their series against the Rays as they were held scoreless in both matchups while combining for just 9 hits. Luke Weaver will make his 2023 season debut on Thursday, which will be his first start since June 18 of last season. Weaver was moved to the bullpen after being acquired by the Royals halfway through the season and finished with a 6.56 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in 35.2 innings. I expect the Pirates to welcome him back to the show with a few fireworks on Thursday night.
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