Caleb Wilfinger
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The last day before the MLB All-Star break begins with a series finale between the Texas Rangers and Washington Nationals on Peacock. These teams are heading in opposite directions, but we still should see plenty of fireworks on Sunday afternoon.
Below is my Same Game Parlay for this matchup, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (-134)
Over 10.5 (-102)
Corey Seager to record 2+ hits (+150)
Same Game Parlay odds: +546
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That isn’t the case here, as Corey Seager getting 2+ hits does correlate with a convincing Rangers win.
Texas Rangers -1.5 (-134)
On the mound will be Dane Dunning for the Rangers and Patrick Corbin for the Nationals, and that immediately gives an advantage to Texas. Dunning has a 2.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP and he has been the starter in 11 of his 19 games with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP during those outings. His advanced metrics suggest negative regression is coming, but he has consistently found ways to avoid it so far.
Corbin has had a weird season. He was terrible at the start of the campaign, but then he suddenly allowed just 2 runs or less in 4 straight starts in May and looked like a better version of himself. However, that run of form didn’t last long, as he ended June with a 1-4 record and a 4.66 ERA in 5 starts. And in his last outing, Corbin was shelled for 6 runs and 10 hits in just 5 innings by the a similarly hot offense in the Reds. He now ranks in the bottom 10% of pitchers in xBA, xSLG, xERA, whiff rate and strikeout rate among others. The only way I can see this game ending is in a clear victory for Texas.
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Over 10.5 (-102)
Between Corbin and Dunning, the ball could be flying at Nationals Park today. Corbin is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball and he demonstrated that in June with 38 hits allowed in just 29 innings pitched. The southpaw has allowed 10 or more hits in 3 of his last 6 starts and has given up at least 6 runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. I’m not confident that he can limit this potent Rangers offense, even at home. Since June 1, the Rangers own the best wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, plus they also rank 2nd in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS against southpaws in that time. The wind is also expected to be blowing out toward, so the hitters on both sides should have a great day at the plate. You have to like the chances of the over cashing on Sunday afternoon.
You can also check out today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
Corey Seager to record 2+ hits (+150)
Corey Seager has been outstanding in his tenure as a member of the Texas Rangers, and he’s looked like one of the best hitters in baseball this season. The tall left-hander currently holds a .355 batting average through 55 games played, to go along with 12 home runs and 52 RBIs on the season. Seager has cut down on his strikeouts a ton while increasing the hard contact he’s making with the ball, sitting in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and the 100th percentile in xBA per Baseball Savant. Getting his 2+ hit prop this deep into plus-money feels like a steal against Corbin, especially considering that Seager has 3 multi-hit games in his last 4 contests, and 5 games of 2+ hits over his last 8 starts. Let’s go back to the well one more time on Sunday.
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