Kyle Lupas
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The only thing more exciting than an NFL Sunday slate is an NFL Sunday slate that ends with Game 1 of the ALCS! The Texas Rangers look to remain undefeated in this postseason as they travel to Houston to take on the defending champion Astros. I’ve taken a close look at tonight’s matchup and put together a 3-leg parlay paying out at 5/1 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. So let’s break down each leg of this Same Game Parlay ahead of this AL West rivalry.
NRFI (-108)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-110)
Marcus Semien to record a hit (-250)
Rangers vs Astros Same Game Parlay: +500
NRFI (-108)
The Texas Rangers are a perfect 5-0 through the first 2 rounds of this postseason, but tonight they go up against future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in a hostile Houston environment. Verlander, now in his second stint with the Astros, has his eyes set on another World Series and has provided an immediate boost to the starting rotation since rejoining the Stros in August. Through 11 regular-season starts with Houston, the 40-year-old owns a 3.31 ERA and tossed a 6.0-inning shutout against the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS. The Rangers’ lineup has been among one of the best in baseball this season and has been productive in October, however, Verlander had success against them on September 6, when he held Texas to 1 earned run across 7.0 innings with the lone run coming on a leadoff homer from Marcus Semien.
The Rangers counter with left-hander Jordan Montgomery, whose numbers don’t jump off the page, but his productivity can’t be denied. In 32 starts split between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Rangers, Montgomery registered a 3.20 ERA and he’ll look to bounce back after surrendering 4 earned runs over 4.0 innings to the Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of the ALDS. Prior to that start, Montgomery managed to string together 5 consecutive outings in which he went at least 6.0 innings while allowing no more than 1 earned run. Montgomery won’t overpower this Houston lineup, but he ranks above league-average in chase rate, walk rate, hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate with a great mix of pitches including a sinker, changeup and curveball. I expect a scoreless first inning in Houston tonight.
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-110)
The reason for taking Yordan Alvarez to record 2+ total bases tonight is quite simple — he has been the best hitter this postseason and his season splits support it. Through 4 games in the ALDS, Alvarez slashed .438/.471/1.313 with 4 home runs, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs. Alvarez has been on a tear, and the only way he won’t continue to stay hot is if the Rangers intentionally pitch around him. Throughout the regular season, Alvarez’s splits against right-handed pitching and left-handed pitching aren’t significantly different. Alvarez still managed to slash .295/.385/.507 against left-handers and Jordan Montgomery actually has worse splits against left-handed batters than he does against right-handers. In 106 plate appearances, left-handed hitters are posting a .277 batting average against Montgomery, which could lead to some issues when facing Alvarez.
Marcus Semien to record a hit (-250)
Last but not least, I’m backing the Rangers’ leadoff hitter Marcus Semien to record at least 1 hit tonight. He may be hitting only .174 this postseason after a 4-for-23 start, but he has spread those hits around and hit safely in 3 of the Rangers’ 5 playoff games. Semien’s final 2 games of the ALDS were most certainly his best, going 3-for-9 with a double and no strikeouts. Not only do I believe Semien is due for some positive regression, but he has posted tremendous numbers against Justin Verlander over the course of his career. In 43 career at-bats against Verlander, Semien is hitting .326 with a .535 slugging percentage. Semien has been extremely swing happy in those at-bats considering Verlander has not walked him a single time. With Texas being the road team tonight, there’s a good chance Semien will get 5 chances to record a hit. I’ll gladly add this as the last leg of my parlay, giving us a 5/1 payout.
You can also read our Rangers vs Astros player props and YRFI/NRFI Best Bet
