Ryan Hodges
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This ALCS Texas showdown has tuned into a phenomenal series. After each team took two games on the road, Game 5 delivered in a big way. The Rangers had what felt like a comfortable 2-run lead in the 9th, but as the Astros have shown for the 7th straight season now, there is no safe lead against Houston, who came back to win 5-4. Game 5 brought everything from a bench-clearing incident to a 9th-inning comeback. What we are in store for in Game 6?
If you’re looking to have some action on Sunday’s game, check out our Rangers vs Astros Same Game Parlay below. You can also read our MLB predictions.
Rangers ML (+105)
Under 8.5 (-110)
Marcus Semien 2+ total bases (+100)
Same Game Parlay odds: +625
Rangers ML (+105)
The Rangers were 3 outs away from taking a 3-2 series lead and they have already taken both games in Minute Maid Park this series. Any home-field advantage the Astros would otherwise have is neutralized by the Rangers’ success in that ballpark. Texas has done enough to win in most games of the series, with a glaring exception on Friday, but they have shown up when it matters and will now play with more urgency than at any point this year.
A primary factor that gives the Rangers a shot in Game 6 is their starting pitcher. Nathan Eovaldi will get the ball in the win-or-go-home game for Texas. Eovaldi has been stellar this postseason to the tune of a 3-0 record with a 2.29 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 19.2 innings pitched. That pads his career postseason numbers of a 2.87 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 62.2 innings pitched across 14 appearances. This guy has certified himself as a big-game pitcher. Look for Eovaldi to rise to the occasion in Game 6.
Under 8.5 (-110)
Although Eovaldi’s counterpart Framber Valdez has been touched up in these playoffs, he has a high ceiling and is also no stranger to a big game. Valdez has been very hot and cold in his playoff career. But he has now pitched in 4 postseasons including 2 World Series, one of which his team won. Valdez has been as reliable as most pitchers in baseball for the last few years. In any given game, he can hold his own in a pitchers’ duel against a stud like Eovaldi.
Typically as games grow in importance, the margin of error shrinks. When there is a thin margin of error, teams will usually play more safe and tight than risky and loose. That style of play will likely result in a low total. In a win-or-go-home game, look for the Rangers to have a more conservative batting approach and base running aggressiveness. With a thin margin of error, safe strategy, and good pitching, a lower total has appeal.
Marcus Semien 2+ total bases (+100)
The Rangers will be in a good spot if Marcus Semien can break out of this postseason slump. He is hitting just .159 in these playoffs with no home runs and 2 RBIs. That does not sound too reassuring for any Semien props. But this run follows a fantastic regular season in which Semien hit .276 with 29 home runs, had 100 RBIs and had an .826 OPS. This season showed if there is a player on the Rangers who can break a game and carry them to a big win, Semien is as good a candidate as anyone in that lineup.
Valdez has not has his stuff this postseason. In 2 outings, Valdez has allowed 9 earned runs in 7 innings pitched. Semien does damage against left-handed pitchers and will have a great opportunity to do so again in this game. Semien typically bats ahead of some combination of Corey Seager, Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia. If he can get on base, he has a great chance to advance and cash this prop. This plus-money is fantastic value.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI Best Bet for this game
