Kyle Lupas
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If you were to tell me that Justin Verlander pitched 6.2 innings in Game 1 of the ALCS at home, allowed just 2 earned runs, and the first four batters in the Texas Rangers’ lineup were held to a 1-for-16 night, I’d be willing to bet the Astros were up 1-0 in the series. However, it was just the opposite, as the Rangers won 2-0 on a masterful starting pitching performance from left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who held Houston scoreless through 6.1 innings. This afternoon, Houston looks to even the series as they send Framber Valdez to the mound opposite Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi. I’ve looked at the matchups today and put together a 3-leg parlay available at FanDuel Sportsbook with a payout at +838.
Alternate total over 7.5 (-140)
Nathan Eovaldi over 4.5 strikeouts (+126)
Jose Altuve to record 2+ total bases (+115)
Rangers vs Astros Same Game Parlay: (+838)
Alternate total over 7.5 (-140)
I don’t mind taking over 8.5 runs at even money, but sometimes it’s nice to give yourself a little wiggle room in a parlay, which is exactly what I’m doing here. The Astros were blanked on 5 hits last and both teams finished 1-for-3 with runners in scoring position. While I think we’re going to see a few lower scoring throughout this series as we did in Game 1, I’m not projecting that to happen this afternoon. Nathan Eovaldi has been a big game pitcher throughout his career, registering a 2.70 ERA across 56.2 postseason innings, including a 1.32 ERA through 2 starts this postseason. However, Eovaldi’s last start against the Astros was arguably his worst outing of the season after he failed to make it out of the second inning, surrendering 4 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 home runs. That start began an awful month of September for Eovaldi, as he finished with a 9.30 ERA across 6 starts. I think Eovaldi finishes somewhere in between his blowup start against the Astros in September and his recent success this postseason before Bruce Bochy looks to his bullpen.
For Houston, they turn to left-hander Framber Valdez, who also has a tremendous amount of postseason experience, albeit shaky at times. Valdez’ last start came against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS, where he allowed 5 earned runs across 4.1 innings, only adding to his second half struggles. Since the All-Star break, Valdez has registered a 4.66 ERA across 14 starts as compared to his 2.51 ERA through the first 17 starts of the season. One major reason for concern with Valdez has been the drop off he’s experienced this season when it comes to inducing ground balls. Although his 55.2% ground ball rate is still well above league average, it pales in comparison to the 70.4% mark posted in 2021, followed by a 67.4% mark a season ago. I find it difficult to believe that neither team takes advantage of the generous left field at Minute Maid Park for a second consecutive game.
Check out our Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros predictions
Nathan Eovaldi over 4.5 strikeouts (+126)
While I don’t expect Eovaldi to completely shutout the Astros for a second day in a row, I do expect Bruce Bochy to have a longer leash given Eovaldi’s postseason experience and given the fact the Rangers’ bullpen has been the weak point of this ballclub. Jordan Montgomery was able to rack up 6 strikeouts last night with just a 21.4% strikeout rate on the year, so I’d expect Eovaldi to yield similar results. Eovaldi’s season strikeout rate (22.9%) is just slightly higher than Montgomery, but 4.5 is a number he’s surpassed in each of his last 4 outings, including 15 strikeouts in 13.2 innings this postseason. The Astros have performed well against both right-handed and left-handed pitching this season, but they certainly prefer lefties. It’s never easy to bet against an Astros’ lineup that typically strikes out in under 20% of their at-bats, but I feel this number is too good to pass up at plus money.
Jose Altuve to record 2+ total bases (+115)
One player I don’t project striking out much today is Jose Altuve, who not only launched 2 home runs in 2 innings against Eovaldi the last time he faced him, but also has solid career numbers against him. Across 38 career at-bats against Eovaldi, Altuve is slashing .289/.341/.737 with 2 doubles and 5 home runs. Altuve may have struggled at the plate over the past two postseasons, but I don’t foresee that continuing for a player who’s had so much postseason success, including 24 postseason home runs, which ranks second all-time, behind only Manny Ramirez with 29. Between the postseason success, solid numbers against Eovaldi, and a generous left field wall, I’m backing Altuve to bounce back from the 0-for-3 game he had last night.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets
