I’m starting to think that the week off did more hurt than help to the four teams who earned a bye. The Orioles, Braves and Dodgers, who were among the top teams in the regular season, played in their first game in nearly a week on Saturday and lost. The setting stays the same in each Game 2, but this becomes a must-win game for the home teams. Let’s get into my Same Game Parlay, which pays out at nearly 6/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
NRFI (-140)
Alternate total under 6.5 (+164)
Evan Carter to record a hit (-160)
Same Game Parlay Odds: +568
No Run First Inning (-140)
Game 2 of the ALDS features a pitching matchup between Jordan Montgomery and Grayson Rodriguez, and I’m expecting a low-scoring affair, and it all starts with a scoreless first inning. Coming into this start, Montgomery has not allowed a first-inning run in 10 of his last 11 starts. That includes his wild-card performance,which was utterly dominant. Although the lefty never faced the Orioles in the regular season, he has had great success against Austin Hays and Adley Rutschman in his career. If he can keep the first two hitters off base by the time Anthony Santander gets to the plate, he would put himself in a great position to throw a scoreless first inning.
Rodriguez was absolutely terrible at the beginning of the season. He was Baltimore’s most-anticipated prospect, and he posted a 7.35 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in his first 10 MLB starts. It seems the responsibility of living up to expectations was too much for Rodriguez, but luckily for him, he turned it around after a short stint in the Minors. Following his brief time in Triple-A, the rookie has arguably been Baltimore’s best pitcher. However, listen to this – the rookie has not allowed a first-inning run since being brought up. That means he has yet to allow a run in the opening frame in 13 straight starts. Between Montgomery and Rodriguez, this should be a quick first frame.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets
Alternate total under 6.5 (+164)
Looking at each pitching staff and the probable pitchers for this series, this is the best matchup that we’re going to see in this ALDS series. Montgomery is the new ace of the Rangers pitching staff and because of that, he earned a Game 1 start in the wild-card series against the Rays. And to say he was fantastic in that outing would be an understatement. Montgomery threw 7 scoreless innings and surrendered just 6 hits and zero walks against a Tampa Bay lineup that was in the top 5 in nearly every offensive category. The lefty’s success should not be a surprise either since he’s been on a roll in the last 30 days with only 2 earned runs allowed in his last 5 starts, which span over 34 innings. That comes out to a 0.54 ERA in his last 5 starts… wow.
The Orioles started Kyle Bradish in Game 1, and even though they lost, it was the right move. Bradish had been the ace of the O’s and deserved the start, and he also did well in the spotlight with 9 strikeouts. The majority of the blame can be put on the Baltimore offense, which finished with just 5 hits and went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position. The week off seemed to do more hurt than help for the Orioles, and it could get worse with Montgomery scheduled to start today. Countering the Rangers lefty is Grayson Rodriguez, one of the most impressive rookies this season. The right-hander has been a completely different pitcher since rejoining the Orioles’ starting rotation after a rough start to the season since he’s posted a 2.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 starts after the All-Star break. In that span, Rodriguez allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his 7 starts at Camden Yards. I’m expecting a similar score to Game 1.
Evan Carter to record a hit (-160)
Instead of targeting Marcus Semien, Corey Seager or Adolis Garcia, I have shifted my focus to the Rangers’ rookie, Evan Carter. He was at the bottom of the lineup during the regular season and in the wild-card round, but earned a promotion to the #5 spot in Game 1 of the ALDS. Soon enough, I expect him to move into the #3 spot instead of Robbie Grossman. The rookie brings a veteran presence to the plate since he barely chases pitches out of the zone. He waits for his pitch, and lately, he’s been getting it. In Texas’ 3 postseason games, he is 4-for-6 with 3 doubles and a home run. He also has 5 walks, so he is known for waiting out the pitcher. However, that might be more difficult today since Rodriguez has had excellent command in the last few months. The final leg of this Same Game Parlay is the rookie to record a hit in Game 2.
You can also read our Twins vs Astros SGP
