Kyle Lupas
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Game 4 of the 2023 MLB World Series was uncharacteristic to say the least as we witnessed the Texas Rangers jump out to a 10-0 lead heading into the bottom of the third inning, with all 10 runs being scored with two outs. Give the D-backs some credit though, as they’ve showed time and time again that they play with a tremendous amount of heart, outscoring the Rangers 7-1 the rest of the way while getting 5.1 innings of relief from Ryne Nelson. If the D-backs make a historic comeback, remember the terrific performance from Nelson which essentially saved their bullpen for tonight.
Unfortunately for Arizona, I think their unexpected run to the World Series ends tonight at home with another great pitching performance from Nathan Eovaldi. I have what I believe will be our last MLB Same Game Parlay of the 2023 season which you can place on FanDuel Sportsbook at +815 odds. Let’s dive into my SGP for this game.
Rangers ML (-106)
Nathan Eovaldi over 4.5 strikeouts (-122)
Christian Walker 2+ total bases (+120)
Rangers vs Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay: +815
Texas Rangers ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (-106)
The Texas Rangers are the only team to go 10-0 on the road in a postseason and I’m backing them tonight to finish their season with another road win as they secure their first World Series title. Although the Rangers were actually out-hit in Game 4, they were able to get production up and down their lineup. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager each hit home runs and drove in a combined 7 runs, while Travis Jankowski (filling in for the injured Adolis Garcia) went 2-for-4 with a double at the bottom of the lineup. Game 5 delivers a pitching rematch of Game 2 between Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen, and although Eovaldi was outpitched, the Rangers would go on to win the game in extra innings. With the win, the Rangers improved to 5-0 in games Eovaldi has pitched this postseason and his teams are now 10-1 in 11 postseason starts.
The same can’t be said for D-backs starter Zac Gallen, who’s now been on the losing side of his last 3 postseason starts after winning his first 2. Gallen earned his first nod to the All-Star Game this season after posting a 3.04 ERA across his first 19 starts, but he’s been a much different pitcher since the break. Post all-star break, Gallen registered a 4.03 ERA across 15 outings and owns a 5.27 ERA in 5 starts this postseason. Gallen was able to get through 5.0 innings in Game 2 while surrendering 3 earned runs, but control was an issue as he walked 4 batters and threw 99 pitches. Gallen hasn’t quite shown me enough to trust in this spot against Eovaldi, and the Rangers’ big hitters have hit him hard. Seager is hitting .318 in 22 at-bats, while Semien is hitting .455 with a 1.136 OPS in 11 at-bats. Give me Big Game Nate to deliver and bring the Rangers their first World Series title.
Read our full Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
Nathan Eovaldi over 4.5 strikeouts (-122)
With a 3-1 lead and a travel day tomorrow if Arizona is able to extend the series, the Rangers can approach this game in a lot of ways. Bruce Bochy has become one of the best bullpen managers in postseason history and can certainly turn to the pen early if the D-backs create chaos like they did against Eovaldi in Game 2. At the same time, Bochy has shown he trusts Eovaldi as he’s allowed him to complete at least 6.0 innings in 4 of his 5 postseason starts. Eovaldi’s outs recorded is set at 15.5 outs, which seems about right given the scenario. That means we need 1 strikeout per inning if Eovaldi is able to get through 5.0 innings.
During the course of the regular season, the D-backs were among one of the best teams at putting the ball in play, ranking 4th in strikeout rate (20.4%). However, we’ve seen Arizona expand the zone in the postseason and their strikeout rate has jumped to 24.1%. Eovaldi was able to strike out 8 batters in Game 2 despite pitching just 4.2 innings, and has now recorded at least 5 strikeouts in 7 of his last 8 outings. While I think Arizona will try to play more small ball and get baserunners in any way possible, this number just seems too low to me. Back Eovaldi to go over this number tonight.
Christian Walker 2+ total bases (+120)
Christian Walker would be the first one to tell you that he’s not had a postseason to remember. Through 16 games, Walker has a .211/.352/.351 slash line with just 1 home run, and that’s after a 3-for-4 game last night. Walker went 3-for-4 in the first game of the postseason, 3-for-4 last night, and 6-for-49 (.082) in the 14 games in between. Despite Walker’s struggles in the playoffs, he’s shown signs of life over his past few games. Walker is 5-for-14 over his past 3 games with 7 total bases, and he’s making hard contact at a much higher rate. In the 9 at-bats Walker has gotten out, 1 came via strikeout, 1 was a sharp groundout to third baseman Josh Jung who made a diving stop to rob Walker of extra bases, and 3 of the remaining 7 balls put in play had an exit velocity that exceeded 95 mph. Typically hard contact will lead to good results and I’m expecting Walker to put together some good at-bats and record 2+ total bases.
Find out our Rangers vs D-backs YRFI/NRFI best bet for Game 5
