Mark Lammey
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The Rays and Astros continue their weekend series tonight after they just faced each other less than 2 weeks ago. Houston was able to sweep that series as they continue to be the best team in the American League. Tampa has the unfortunate task of trying to build momentum going into the postseason against such a tough team. With this being a potential playoff matchup, let’s break down how Saturday’s game should play out. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Over 4.5 total runs (-370)
Jose Altuve 2+ total bases (+115)
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases (+150)
Parlay odds: +522
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Over 4.5 total runs (-370)
Had this game been started by Cristian Javier for the Astros as originally scheduled, there would be great value on Houston. However, the change to Jose Urquidy makes the total the play. That may sound surprising with Rays lefty ace Shane McClanahan on the mound, but the Astros have shown that is no problem for them. Firstly, he has not been nearly as great the second half of the season and has completely plummeted out of AL Cy Young contention. It also helps that the Astros have been smashing lefties this season.
They have the 4th-highest OPS against such pitching, and it would likely be much higher if not for the slow first month of the season. Regardless, they proved that dominance when these teams met just 2 weeks ago. Houston lit up McClanahan for 5 runs in just 4.0 innings. Then comes in Astros pitcher Urquidy. He’s certainly a viable starter, but has been the most inconsistent in their rotation. He just had back-to-back starts allowing 6 runs against the Angels and A’s, two of the worst teams in the AL. This leg boosts our odds to over +500, but our following 2 props could be played together for about +450 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Be sure to check out our Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros predictions
Jose Altuve 2+ total bases (+115)
One of the primary reasons the Astros are so strong against lefties and took advantage of McClanahan is leadoff man Jose Altuve. The all-star 2nd baseman is regarded as one of the best in baseball. He’s a former AL MVP and a 3-time batting champion. He may be an entire foot shorter than this year’s AL MVP-favorite Aaron Judge, but he’s not far behind in terms of total bases. His 271 are the 8th-most in the AL.
Altuve is also not nearly as home run dependent. He has 35 doubles on the year to go along with his 28 homers. This play is also about his ability to hit lefties. He’s hitting .324 against them this season with an incredible .640 slugging percentage. Better yet, he went 2-for-2 against McClanahan in that previous series. There are plenty of elite hitters in this Astros lineup, but let’s trust the consistency of Altuve.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases (+150)
Let’s wrap things up with another stud Astros hitter. Alex Bregman homered last night so it’s Kyle Tucker’s turn tonight. He’s not far behind Altuve in terms of total bases with 255, which is the 13th-most in the AL. He too is a great balance with 28 doubles and 29 home runs. Tucker doesn’t have much of a history against McClanahan, but his 1-for-2 performance against him was a double. He hit this prop in each of the last 2 games in the series against the Rays just 2 weeks ago as well. For Tucker to go hitless 2 nights in a row is a rarity so expect a bounce-back night for the all-star outfielder.
Ready for another SGP? We have one for the NL East showdown with the Mets vs. Braves
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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