Mark Lammey
Show Bio
The AL East is just as competitive as expected, and this series is no exception. It’s the only division in which every team has at least 60 wins, and they’re all in the playoff hunt. The Rays still have an outside shot at the division title, while the Red Sox are focused on a wild-card spot. While those remain a close battle, the Rays have owned the season series between these teams. However, it also took them until the 11th hour to name a starter for this game. There’s plenty of familiarity between these teams, so let’s break down the best way to attack this series opener. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Red Sox ML (-130)
Over 7.5 total runs (-170)
Xander Bogaerts 2+ total bases (+110)
Parlay odds: +380
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Boston Red Sox ML (-130) over Tampa Bay Rays
Despite the Rays having got the better of the Sox so far this season, Boston can start this weekend series with a win. This is a crucial series for them as the Rays are one of the teams ahead of them in the AL wild-card race. There’s also one key component to this matchup that the Sox had been missing for the majority of meetings with the Rays. Starter Michael Wacha will be on the mound to take on his former team. He’s been back for 2 starts since being on the injured list, both of which were wins against other AL East opponents.
After taking down the O’s and Yankees, he’s now 8-1 on the year with a 2.28 ERA. He also helped the Sox to take down the Rays earlier in the year. There’s even more reason to believe he can repeat that performance tonight. Kike Hernandez has recently returned for Boston, and he was a contributor in that game. On the flip side, the Rays needed 2 home runs from Wander Franco in that matchup just to score 3 runs. He’s been out for quite some time and just suffered a setback in his rehab. Even Brandon Lowe has been in and out of the lineup recently. He wasn’t in it yesterday when the Rays wrapped up their series with the Angels. With them having to travel up to Boston for this series, the Sox can steal the opener behind Wacha.
Over 7.5 total runs (-170)
Regardless of the Sox not being where they’d like to be in the AL East race, they still have some of the league’s top hitters. They should have no problem proving why Fenway Park is such a hitter-friendly venue. The Green Monster can keep some otherwise home runs in play, but that’s why it ranks 2nd for extra-base hits and 3rd for overall runs. Boston has had no issues proving that either. JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo each have at least 30 doubles this season, putting all 4 of them within the top 6 of the American League.
Now they get to put that on display against the night in which the Rays are having their pitching-platoon night. They’ve been doing this quite a bit recently, using a handful of guys to open up the game as a buffer day for their usual starters. It essentially becomes a Ryan Yarbrough show, which is not one Tampa fans want to watch. He’s 1-7 on the season and has a 7.38 ERA against the Sox in his career. Wacha should be able to outduel his former teammate, but the Boston bullpen has been a weak spot for them. The Rays should be able to tack on a couple of runs late when the game is out of hand to help go over the total.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Xander Bogaerts 2+ total bases (+110)
We’re going to target one of those top hitters in shortstop Xander Bogaerts. After missing Wednesday night’s game, he was back in the lineup for the Sox last night. He’s been a crucial piece for them throughout injuries to Devers, Hernandez and Trevor Story. His 193 total bases is among the best in the AL, and his 32 doubles are the 5th-most in the AL. Even his 131 hits are the 5th-most, proving his ability to hit this prop in multiple ways. We’re also targeting him due to tonight’s matchup. Bogaerts has been the best Sox hitter against the Rays this season. His .333 average and .545 slugging percentage against them should provide confidence that he can hit this prop tonight.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1136 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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