One of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, but one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well priced and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. We went 2-0 on our YRFI/NRFI bets yesterday which brings our run to 37-19.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game today.
There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like today, so let’s get right into it.
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets: NRFI (-160)
This matchup is a dream come true for NRFI bettors. Yes, I know this is a juiced line for an NRFI, but can you blame the oddsmakers? It’s Spencer Strider against Jacob deGrom, an up-and-coming star against the best pitcher in baseball. DeGrom made his season debut against the Nationals just a few days ago and performed as expected. The ace allowed 3 hits in 5 innings and looked almost unhittable — as always. In the first inning, he faced the minimum 3 batters and struck out 2 of them. Dominating the first frame has been a common theme for DeGrom since hitters were 5-for-49 (.102) with a 49% strikeout rate against the Mets ace in 2021.
Strider burst onto the scene this season and has become the heavy favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year. It’s not surprising to see why since Strider has a 2.79 ERA matched with a 2.66 xERA through 87 innings. Strider’s 38.3% strikeout rate puts him in the 99th percentile and makes DeGrom’s strikeout rate look normal. Since the all-star break, Strider has a 1.42 ERA through 12.2 innings, and opponents are 6-for-44 (.136) against him. The rookie has been very impressive throughout the game, but his first inning stats have been absurd. Opponents are 5-for-41 (.122) with a 51.2% strikeout rate in the first frame against Strider, and he has not allowed a first-inning run in 11 consecutive starts. In his 12 outings as a starter, the NRFI is 10-2. I know the odds aren’t ideal, but with a pitching matchup like this, it’s worth every cent.
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals: NRFI (-128)
This series has been defined by good pitching, and that shouldn’t change today. Frankie Montas will make his Yankees debut and the long-time Cardinal Adam Wainwright will oppose him. Wainwright has been solid in his 17th season, but he’s at his best at the beginning of the game. The last time that the veteran allowed a run in the first inning was June 22, so that makes for 7 consecutive starts that Wainwright has not allowed a run in the first inning. The top of the Yankees order is excellent, but none of them have had great success against Wainwright. In their careers against the veteran, DJ LeMahieu is 1-for-14 (.071) with 2 strikeouts, Aaron Judge is 1-for-2 (.500), and Anthony Rizzo is 14-for-68 (.206) with 8 strikeouts.
Sunday’s series finale will be Montas’ first start as a Yankee, so the new acquisition will want to show out. Montas has been excellent in his 2 starts in the second half of the season, as he’s allowed just 2 earned runs and has a 28% strikeout rate. The top of the Cardinals order has very limited at-bats against Montas which gives an advantage to the pitcher. Pitching should continue to be the story of this series and the NRFI should cash in St. Louis today.
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