Caleb Wilfinger
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Here at Pickswise, we are on a 29-13 run in our last 42 NRFI/YRFI best bets. With more than a dozen MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game.
There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Sunday, so let’s get right into it.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves: NRFI (-105)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Sunday’s matchup between the Diamondbacks and Braves should be predicated on solid starting pitching. The Braves got off to a quick start in the series opener, but don’t expect the same result in this one. Arizona is sending Merrill Kelly to the hill, who has been surprisingly effective early on. Kelly’s xERA is hovering around his 3.04 ERA, and he’s good at limiting hard contact. Furthermore, his xWOBA and xSLG is in the top 25% of all qualified starters. Even against a hot Braves offense, Kelly should have early success.
The Diamondbacks’ offense has a major challenge on their hands with Max Fried. The Braves ace continues to be one of best in baseball, and his raw and advanced metrics back it up. Posting a 2.73 ERA with just a 4% walk rate for the season, the lefty is more than capable of setting down a middling Diamondbacks lineup. Fried has not surrendered a first-inning run in his last 10 outings. He’s consistently dominated the opposition early on, and I don’t expect that to change against a mediocre offense.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-140)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Much like the previous contest, this NL East matchup should feature strong pitching from both teams. While this game doesn’t feature either team’s best pitcher, both are still solid. For the Mets, Taijuan Walker has been excellent in 2022, especially early on. While he allowed a run in the first inning of his last outing, Walker has typically made strong starts. In fact, the right-hander hasn’t surrendered a run in 12 of his 16 starts this season. The Miami Marlins offense is nothing to write home about, and they found out this week that they are likely going to be without Jazz Chisholm for the rest of the season. Chisholm has been Miami’s best hitter, and his absence has certainly been felt. It’ll be tough for the Marlins to get anything going early on.
On the other side, Pablo Lopez is a popular trade deadline candidate, and for good reason. The righty opened the season on an absolute tear, and has since rebounded nicely after an up-and-down June. Holding an ERA of 3.03 on the season, Lopez has been consistent all year, including holding the opposition scoreless in 4 of his last 5 outings. Look for another strong start from Lopez en route to a scoreless inning.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
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