Mark Lammey
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This weekend has been crazy with the weather causing a number of MLB games to be postponed. It’s provided several doubleheaders and a lot of pitcher shuffling. One of the few series in the northeast that has kept its schedule is the Battle of the Sox. However, there have still been pitching changes, which puts Dallas Keuchel on the mound for the early Sunday matchup. Let’s take a look at how we can exploit the struggling lefty as the 2 Sox teams round out their series. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
1st 5 innings Money line – Red Sox (+125)
Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Parlay odds: +725
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay, which has a payout north of 7/1.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+140) over Chicago White Sox
While it was the White Sox struggling to open the season, it’s been the Red Sox who have been struggling as of late. They desperately need to turn things around if they want to have any chance in a division as deep as the AL East. Thankfully for Boston, Dallas Keuchel provides the perfect opportunity for them to get back to their winning ways. He was scheduled to get the start on Saturday, but was pushed back for this early game on Sunday. Despite having lost 6 of their last 7, it is Boston who is the favorite. This should help make it all the more obvious how poorly Keuchel has been pitching.
The lefty is 1-3 with an 8.41 ERA on the year and it almost feels like a trap to continue fading him this hard. However, he has pitched just 15 innings across his 4 starts while allowing 19 runs and has recorded just 3 total strikeouts in his last 3 starts combined. It’s not as if the Red Sox are as poor as their recent games would suggest. They have some of the best bats in baseball that can easily cause Keuchel’s struggles to continue. With the likes of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez, their lineup ended the 2021 season top-5 in both team OPS and runs scored. It’s been a rough stretch recently, but Sunday’s series finale provides a great opportunity to work back towards those averages.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox
1st 5 innings / Money line – Red Sox (+125)
Essentially what this leg of the parlay means is that we are taking the Red Sox to be winning after the first 5 innings and at the end of the game. Think of it as a mini-parlay piece within the same game parlay. It is a correlated play that should come as no surprise. With Keuchel’s struggles being the primary factor for Boston’s success, it only makes sense to also isolate the time of the game where he is sure to be pitching. The Red Sox should be able to build enough of a lead in the early innings to carry them throughout the 2nd half of the game after Keuchel is pulled.
Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases (+100)
In case you haven’t noticed a theme just yet, Dallas Keuchel is struggling. Rather than continuing to pick on him for every leg of our same game parlay, let’s focus on the positives of Devers. For all of the Red Sox’s woes recently, Devers has been one of their consistent pieces. Trevor Story has been striking out too much, and Kike Hernandez has been in and out of the lineup. However, Devers has continued to perform and is working to match his 13th-ranked slugging percentage of 2021. Keep in mind that slugging percentage is the amount of total bases per at-bat, so that should be a primary factor in analyzing a total base prop. He’s already hit this prop in 16 games this season, including yesterday with 3 total bases on 2 hits. Expect his hot bat to continue, especially in his home stadium of Fenway Park.
Read our picks and predictions for all of Sunday’s MLB matchups
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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