Kyle Lupas
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All 30 teams are in action this Sunday, starting off in Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm ET with the Pirates and Rockies and ending in Philadelphia at 7:10 pm ET between the Phillies and San Francisco Giants on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. For today’s parlay, I’m backing a pair of road teams on the run line along with the over in the late game. This 3-leg parlay pays out at +956 odds with Fanduel Sportsbook.
Below I’ll provide a breakdown of each individual leg. Also don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Brewers -1.5 (+150)
Braves -1.5 (+126)
Giants vs Phillies Over 7.5 (-115)
MLB Parlay Odds: +956
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over Chicago Cubs (+150)
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs wrap up their series this afternoon in a rubber match after Chicago evened the series with a 6-5 win on Saturday. We get a marquee pitching matchup to close out the series with Freddy Peralta and Javier Assad taking the mound for their respective teams, but I have to give the edge to Milwaukee in this game for a number of reasons. First and foremost, Peralta has gotten off to a hot start for the Brewers — posting a 3-0 record with a 3.21 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through his first 6 starts. Peralta allowed 5 earned runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his fourth start, but other than that he has gone at least 5.1 innings while giving up no more than 3 earned runs in his 5 other outings. What makes Peralta so effective is his ability to rack up swings and misses and strikeouts, as he ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in both Whiff rate and strikeout rate. Thus far, Peralta has 45 strikeouts to just 9 walks.
For the Cubs, they will counter with 26-year-old right-hander Javier Assad, who has put together a great start in his first full season as a starter. Assad is 2-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, but some of his underlying metrics give cause for concern. Assad ranks in the 7th percentile in Whiff rate and in the 43rd percentile in strikeout rate, relying heavily on inducing weak contact, where he ranks in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate. While Assad is effective at pitching to contact, the Brewers are one of the strongest lineups he has seen to this point. Milwaukee ranks 2nd behind the Dodgers in wRC+ at 117 and Assad has not pitched 6.0 innings since his season debut. The Cubs’ bullpen is quite vulnerable as well, ranking 22nd in ERA, compared to the Brewers who rank 12th. The Brewers have advantages in their starting pitching, lineup, and bullpen in this rubber match. I’ll back them on the run line at +150 odds.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 over Los Angeles Dodgers (+126)
Our next game takes us out to L.A., where the Atlanta Braves are on the brink of being swept folowing an 11-2 loss yesterday that was practically over after 4 innings. That being said, I like the Braves to salvage the series given the starting pitching matchup between a pair of left-handers in Max Fried and James Paxton. Each of these teams perform quite well against left-handed pitching, with the Dodgers ranking 5th in OPS and the Braves ranking 6th, but Fried has way more upside than Paxton at this juncture. Fried may own a 4.02 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through his first 6 outings, but his overall numbers are heavily inflated due to his first 2 starts in which he surrendered 10 earned runs over 5.0 innings. Over his last 4 starts, Fried has given up just 4 earned runs and has back-to-back shutouts, including a complete game shutout over the Miami Marlins. Fried ranks in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 99th percentile in ground-ball rate, which should at least contain the Dodgers’ lineup in the early goings.
Meanwhile, all signs point to major regression out of Paxton when you consider his 6.19 xERA compared to his actual 3.51 ERA. Paxton ranks in the 16th percentile or worse in xERA, chase rate, Whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Through his first 5 starts, Paxton has only completed a full 6.0 innings once and has more walks (22) than strikeouts (15). Atlanta is currently 20-11 on the season and that’s with Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Matt Olson all hitting .235 or worse in the month of April. Olson still hasn’t come to form yet, but Acuna Jr. and Riley are a combined 12-for-27 over their last 3 games. I would expect the Braves to do some early damage in this game and hold on with their bullpen — which ranks 8th in xFIP, as opposed to the Dodgers who rank 19th with a 4.13 xFIP.
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Over 7.5 (-115)
It was a rainy day in Philadelphia yesterday, causing a weather delay and messy playing conditions that ultimately led to a combined 13 walks, 3 hit batsman and 17 runs. Tonight the forecast calls for a 46% chance of rain at first pitch, so it could lead to another high-scoring game at Citizens Bank Park. Logan Webb will take the ball for San Francisco, owning a 2.98 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with opposing lineups hitting .274 through his first 7 starts. While Webb’s ERA is sub-3.00, he is due for some regression — as he owns a .306 xBA and 4.47 xERA. Webb doesn’t generate many swings and misses or strikeouts, and the Philadelphia lineup ranks 7th with a 113 wRC+.
The Phillies will counter with right-hander Taijuan Walker, who is making just his 2nd start of the season after starting the year on a rehab assignment with right shoulder soreness. It is a questionable move putting Walker back in the starting rotation and moving Spencer Turnbull to the bullpen following a remarkable start for the 31-year old right-hander. Turnbull was moved to the pen despite posting a 1.67 ERA across his first 6 starts of the season. Walker made his season debut against the Padres on April 28 and surrendered 6 earned runs on 8 hits, 2 home runs and 2 walks in 6.1 innings. For comparison, Turnbull gave up just 6 earned runs across 32.1 innings. Walker is still working his way back, so this game total seems far too low in a game featuring a pair of vulnerable starting pitchers and bullpens that both rank 24th or worse in terms of ERA. I’ll take the over here and would play it up to 8 runs.
