Kevin Davies
Show Bio
I know, it’s football Sunday. However, there is a great slate of MLB games today with an especially intriguing edition of Sunday Night Baseball between the Astros and Diamondbacks.
Let’s jump right into my MLB mega parlay!
Padres -1.5 (+108)
Dodgers -1.5 (+128)
Diamondbacks ML (+120)
Parlay odds: +943
San Diego Padres -1.5 (+108) over San Francisco Giants
Joe Musgrove has been nearly unhittable since returning from the injured list. The right-hander struggled in April and was sidelined for several months due to an injury, but he is back to full health and has been spectacular since rejoining the rotation. He’s 2-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in 5 starts after the all-star break. That sounds fantastic, and it gets even better when you dig deeper and see all 4 runs he’s allowed in that 5-start span were on the road. In his 2 road starts since returning, he has allowed 4 runs and 10 hits in 10.1 innings to the Rockies and Cardinals. However, when Musgrove has been at home, he’s been perfect. He has thrown 17.1 scoreless innings and has allowed just 6 hits. That’s pure domination, and since he’s back at home for today’s start, it’s worth taking San Diego to win by multiple runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+128) over Cleveland Guardians
The Dodgers deployed a bullpen game last night and still managed to come away with the win. Los Angeles won’t need to use as many arms tonight since Jack Flaherty is getting the start for the home team. Since coming to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Flaherty has been one of the most reliable arms in the league. He’s 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 6 starts for the Dodgers. He has held hitters to a .258 batting average with a 28% strikeout rate and just a 34% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers offense will be facing Tanner Bibee, a right-hander that has allowed 10 runs and 18 hits in his last 3 starts. There is a clear pitching mismatch, so I’m backing the Dodgers to come out with another multi-run win.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+120) over Houston Astros
I was very surprised to see the Diamondbacks listed as the underdogs on Sunday. The Snakes will be starting Ryne Nelson, a right-hander who is 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA since the break. He was nearly put into the bullpen, but his fantastic July and August has kept him in the rotation for the final month of the season. Since August 1, Nelson has held hitters to a .223 batting average with a 29% strikeout rate and just a 4% walk rate. His control has been phenomenal in the second half of the season and it’s helped that he’s backed by one of the most efficient offenses in baseball. Nelson will be countered by Justin Verlander, who has had a disappointing season thus far. He’s 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in 3 starts in the second half of the season and allowed a .311 batting average and a 9% walk rate during that span. I’m more than happy to take the Snakes at plus odds.
