Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
We have 28 teams in action this Sunday and I’ve narrowed down this jam-packed slate to feature my 3 favorite bets. This 3-leg parlay includes a pair of underdogs on the ML and a favorite on the run line at +919 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a closer look at this parlay and be sure to read the entire article for my reasoning and analysis for each individual leg. Also, don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Rockies ML (+134)
Giants -1.5 (+120)
Astros ML (-102)
MLB parlay odds: +919
Colorado Rockies ML over Tampa Bay Rays (+134)
Sure the Colorado Rockies are just 2-7 to begin the year, but they’ve also had a difficult schedule to begin their season. They opened up with last year’s NL champs in the Arizona Diamondbacks then traveled to Chicago to square off with the Cubs. Colorado won their home opener against the Rays on Friday and were up 6-1 heading into the 7th inning yesterday before surrendering 7 runs to the close out the game.
Despite the collapse, I like the Rockies to bounce back this afternoon when they send 29-year-old Dakota Hudson to the mound for his second start since signing with Colorado. Hudson spent his first 6 seasons in St. Louis where he posted a respectable 3.80 ERA across nearly 500 innings. In his first start with his new ballclub, Hudson completed 5.1 innings on just 85 pitches while surrendering 3 runs, none of which were earned. I’m not as high on Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot, who has just 84 innings of MLB experience under his belt. The 26-year-old right-hander had a rough outing against the Rangers last week, giving up 6 earned runs and 4 walks. Pitching at Coors Field won’t treat Pepiot kindly as he doesn’t induce a ton of ground balls.
San Francisco Giants -1.5 over San Diego Padres (+120)
I’m taking a somewhat similar approach in the second leg of this parlay by siding with the experience of right-hander Logan Webb of the Giants as opposed to Padres’ right-hander Matt Waldron, who has just 45.1 innings of experience in the Big Leagues. Neither pitcher produced great results in their last outing, with Webb giving up 5 earned runs to the Dodgers in 3.2 innings and Waldron surrendering 4 earned runs in 4 innings to the Cardinals, but Webb will see this Padres’ lineup for the second time already in the early goings of the season.
Webb yielded much better results against the Padres and gave up just 2 earned runs across 6 innings, although the Giants ultimately fell 6-4. The biggest difference today is that Waldron is toeing the rubber for the Padres, and not Yu Darvish, who put together a masterful performance in that Padres win. Waldron’s numbers last season weren’t anything to write home about as his xBA, xERA, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and barrel rate were all below league average. I’ll side with Webb and the Giants to take care of business.
Houston Astros ML over Texas Rangers (-102)
For a team like the Houston Astros to start their season at 2-7, it’s very surprising to say the least. This is a team that competed in 2 of the last 3 World Series, winning 1 of them in the process. However, at this point in the season there’s absolutely no need to press the panic button. The MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Houston also got dealt an extremely difficult schedule to begin their season, starting with the Yankees, Blue Jays, and now the reigning World Series Champions. Meanwhile, the Rangers had a more manageable schedule to start the year as they won 2 out of 3 against the Cubs, 2 out of 3 against the Rays, and have now won the first 2 games of their 4-game set with the Astros.
Ronel Blanco will take the bump for the Astros after tossing a no-hitter in his first start, while Dane Dunning makes his second start for Texas after a solid outing against the Rays. While nobody is expecting Blanco to replicate what he did in his last outing, his underlying metrics suggest some positives. Blanco’s whiff rate and hard hit rate ranked in the 80th percentile or better last season. I do believe the Astros begin to produce more consistently on the offensive side. As a team they own a .289 xBA which is much higher than their actual .257 BA. Dunning’s numbers from last season also reflect that he experienced a great deal of luck, posting a 3.70 ERA compared to a 4.48 xERA. Back the Astros to perform better at the plate tonight and to salvage the series.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
