Kyle Lupas
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We have all 15 teams in action to close out the weekend, beginning in Tampa Bay at 11:35 am and wrapping up in Atlanta for another edition of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball when the Braves close out their series with the Philadelphia Phillies. For my mega parlay today, I’ve keyed in on a pair of underdogs and favorite on the run line.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Sunday.
Padres ML (+124)
Cubs -1.5 (+126)
Red Sox ML (-104)
Parlay odds: +893
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San Diego Padres ML (+124) over New York Yankees
The San Diego Padres and New York Yankees partake in a rubber match this afternoon after the Yanks walked things off in the 10th inning yesterday. The Padres struggled to get much of anything going offensively, finishing the game with just 3 hits, while going 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position. Fernando Tatis Jr. picked up his 2nd homer of the series, and despite only scoring 2 runs the Padres have been much better at the plate over the past week. This is going to be a tough lineup for Gerrit Cole, especially with how poorly he has pitched in May. Cole entered this month with a 1.11 ERA but is pitching to a 4.67 ERA through 5 starts this month and has given up multiple homers in 3 of those outings.
Yu Darvish makes his 10th start for San Diego and he has produced a solid season thus far. He has pitched at least 5.0 innings in all 10 of his starts and his underlying metrics are all well above average — including his .215 xBA. Darvish should keep the Yankees’ lineup relatively quiet, as they have only put up 5 runs in their last 3 games. All and all, I think this game is much closer to a coin flip even though the Yankees at -146 favorites. Cole has struggled to keep the ball in the park and this Padres lineup has some serious power. I’m backing San Diego to win this game and win the series.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+126) over Cincinnati Reds
The Chicago Cubs look to avoid being swept at home this afternoon as the Cincinnati Reds have outscored them 17-5 through the first 2 games of the series. With left-hander Drew Smyly on the mound for Chicago, they’ll certainly have their best shot at limiting the Reds’ production. Smyly has been one of the most efficient and consistent pitchers in the MLB this season, owning a 2.93 ERA along with a 0.98 WHIP. It has been an unbelievable stretch for Smyly, and if you remove his season debut in which he allowed 6 earned runs, he has gone 9 consecutive starts allowing 2 earned runs or fewer. His low walk rate paired with a 29.2% hard-hit rate has been a lethal combination, so I’m backing Smyly to find more success.
If Smyly continues to dominate on the hill, the Cubs should have no issues covering the run line when they face Reds starter Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft has been very underwhelming through 2 seasons and has a 5.12 ERA through 158.1 innings pitched. This season has been even worse than his rookie campaign, as he is saddled with a 5.57 ERA and has been awful in May. Over his last 4 outings, Ashcraft has given up 25 earned runs on 32 hits and 5 homers. There’s not much to suggest things are going to get any better, either, as his strikeout rate and xBA are both in the 17th percentile or worse. I feel comfortable with the Cubs putting up some runs and salvaging the series at home.
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Boston Red Sox ML (-104) over Arizona Diamondbacks
To cap off my mega parlay we head to Arizona, where the Boston Red Sox go for a sweep following a 2-1 victory yesterday over the Diamondbacks. Tanner Houck takes the ball for Boston, and despite his 4.99 ERA he is coming off his best start of the season after tossing 6.0 innings of 1-run ball against the Angels. Houck’s biggest issues have been getting strikeouts and limiting hard contact, and he improved on both his last time out, giving up only 2 hard hit ball and striking out a season-high 8 batters. Houck has tremendous upside and his 3.61 xERA implies he’s had some bad luck to begin the year. I think he starts to turn things around and could use his last outing as a springboard towards success.
Meanwhile, Merrill Kelly of the D-Backs is a pitcher who has received a great deal of luck through his first 10 starts. He owns a 2.98 ERA but a 3.82 xERA and a career-worst 10.1% walk rate. The control issues haven’t been a problem in May, but the Red Sox are a team that can put up runs in a hurry. They rank 4th in runs scored, 5th in batting average and 5th in OPS. I view this pitching matchup as relatively even, but I have more faith in the Red Sox lineup to produce at the plate. The AL East has also dominated teams outside their division with a 110-61 record. I’m taking Boston to finish the sweep.
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