Kyle Lupas
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Sunday offers a 15-game slate across the MLB, starting early in Atlanta with an 11:35 AM ET first pitch between the Braves and the Pirates, and coming to a close in Baltimore at 7:10 PM ET with the Orioles hosting the Texas Rangers. For today’s parlay, I’ve chosen 1 favorite on the runline and a pair of teams to win outright with a payout of +881 odds.
Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Sunday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +881 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dodgers -1.5 (+116)
Mariners ML (-108)
Rangers ML (+136)
MLB Parlay Odds: +881
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 over San Francisco Giants (+116)
The first leg of our parlay takes us to San Francisco, with a rubber match between the Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers managed to even up the series yesterday with a 14-7 victory, with 7 of their runs coming in the top of the 11th-inning. This afternoon, Los Angeles turns the ball over to 35-year-old left hander James Paxton, who owns a 3.39 ERA across 14 starts and tossed a 5.0-inning shutout against the Giants back on April 1. Paxton is a prime candidate for some regression, as his 4.47 xERA would suggest, but his experience could be the difference in this ballgame.
The Giants will rely on 30-year-old right hander Spencer Bivens, who has just 9.0 innings of Major League experience under his belt. Bivens has pitched in relief for the Giants on 5 occasions this season and will likely be tasked with getting through the Dodger lineup 1 time before handing the ball off to the bullpen. If Bivens is asked to pitch deeper into this game, it may spell trouble for San Francisco. The Dodgers have yet to see Bivens, but their offense is far superior to that of the Giants. Los Angeles has a 118 wRC+ against righties this season and Bivens has not seen a lineup with this much talent in his early career. I’ll back the Dodgers to put up enough runs in this game to cover the run line and win the series.
Seattle Mariners ML over Minnesota Twins (-108)
The second leg of our parlay features yet another rubber match, with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Minnesota Twins. Seattle evened the series with a 5-1 win yesterday and I like them to close out the series with a win today with this game slated as a pick’ em. The reason for backing the Mariners in this spot is entirely due to the fact that they will have Luis Castillo on the hill. Castillo owns a modest 3.71 ERA across 17 starts this season, but his chase rate and strikeout rate are still above league average. Castillo also put together a solid outing against Minnesota on May 6 after completing 6.2 innings while allowing just 2 earned runs on 2 hits and 7 strikeouts.
Joe Ryan gets the nod for the Twins today, but he has yet to go up against the Mariners this season. Ryan owns a 3.31 ERA through 16 starts, but has a 4.06 ERA through 5 starts in June and has surpassed 5 strikeouts just once in those starts. The underlying metrics are certainty solid, with a 3.9% walk rate and 3.05 xERA, but Ryan ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in both barrel rate and ground-ball rate. The Mariners have played good baseball in June with a 15-11 record and I expect Castillo to put together a solid outing after a couple rough starts in June. Back Seattle to do enough to win and close out the series.
Texas Rangers ML over Baltimore Orioles (+136)
To close out the day, we look to the final game on Sunday’s slate between the Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have taken the first 3 games of this series, extending the Rangers losing streak to 6 games. To make matters worse, Corey Seager exited yesterday’s game after getting hit in the hand by a 91 mph sinker. Luckily, initial X-rays came back negative and he will be re-evaluated today. This might not sound like the ideal spot to back Texas, but I like their chances considering the starting pitching matchup.
Left-hander Cole Irvin takes the ball for the Orioles while posting a 3.74 ERA, but he is due for significant regression considering his 4.97 xERA is over a full run higher. In addition to that, Irvin ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xBA, avg exit velo, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and barrel rate. Irvin’s regression is also starting to become apparent as he owns a 5.47 ERA over his last 5 outings. For the Rangers, they turn to a left-hander of their own in Andrew Heaney, who has been quite average in terms of his numbers this season. Heaney carries a 4.17 ERA, but has been consistent in June by going at least 4.2 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in all 5 starts. That level of consistency should serve the Rangers well and it could be enough for them to snap their losing streak.
