Kyle Lupas
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Sunday offers a 14-game slate across the MLB, starting early in Philadelphia with an 11:35 AM ET first pitch between the Phillies and the Diamondbacks, and coming to a close in Chicago at 7:10 PM ET with the Cubs hosting the New York Mets. For today’s parlay, I’ve chosen 3 road underdogs to come out on top with a payout of +849 odds.
Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Sunday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +849 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Royals ML (+124)
Brewers ML (+116)
Mets ML (-104)
MLB Parlay Odds: +849
Kansas City Royals ML over Texas Rangers (+124)
The big news surrounding this afternoon’s game between the Texas Rangers and the visiting Kansas City Royals is the return of Max Scherzer. Scherzer will be making his first start for the Rangers since pitching in Game 3 of the World Series last season. After offseason surgery to repair a herniated disk, right thumb soreness, and 3 rehab starts, Scherzer is ready to make his season debut. In Scherzer’s last 2 rehab starts with Triple-A Round Rock, he tossed a combined 8.2 innings while allowing 3 earned runs and racking up 13 strikeouts. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said there is no strict pitch count on Scherzer, but one would assume he won’t push him too deep into this game considering he has not stretched past 80 pitches in any of his rehab starts.
With that said, Texas might be more dependent upon their bullpen, which currently ranks 22nd with a 4.17 FIP. Kansas City trails closely behind at 4.37. Starting for the Royals is right-hander Alec Marsh, who owns a 4.37 ERA through 13 starts. Marsh is looking to bounce back from a rough start against the Oakland A’s in which he allowed 7 earned runs on 7 hits in just 3.0 innings of work. Marsh might have a better day today though, as the Rangers rank 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. While Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of our generation, I tend to fade pitchers making their first start back from an extended absence. I like the value on Kansas City and will back them to begin our parlay.
Milwaukee Brewers ML over San Diego Padres (+116)
Continuing the theme of road underdogs, our second parlay piece is the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. Much like the Royals, the Brewers too look to avoid being swept having lost their first 3 games in San Diego. Right-handed rookie Tobias Myers will take the ball for the Brewers and look to build upon a strong month of June. Myers owns a 3.26 ERA through 9 starts and 10 appearances, but he has seemingly found a groove in June, allowing just 1 earned run across 3 starts and 20.1 innings. The Brewers have also come out on top in each of his last 4 outings.
Countering for the Padres is 29-year-old right-hander Michael King, who owns a 3.49 ERA across 15 starts. Like Myers, King’s best numbers have come in the month of June. In 4 starts, King has a 1.66 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 21.2 innings. While King does get his strikeouts, he often times hurts himself with walks. His 9.9% walk rate is the highest of his career and ranks in the 27th percentile across the league. Milwaukee is among one of the most patient teams at the plate, ranking 3rd with a 9.5% walk rate. This does not appear to be a great matchup for King if the Brewers force him into deep counts and I’m willing to back Milwaukee in avoiding the sweep.
New York Mets ML over Chicago Cubs (-104)
The last leg of this parlay again sides with a road underdog, backing the New York Mets to win their series over the Chicago Cubs. The Mets have been streaky this season, but they are currently playing some of their best baseball here in June. Since June 3, New York is 12-4 and inching closer to .500 with each win. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 6-9 since June 6 and are now 3 games below .500 and in 4th place in the NL Central. Starting for the Mets will be Luis Severino, who has had sort of a reassurance after a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees. After posting a 6.65 ERA in 89.1 innings with the Yanks last year, Severino owns a 3.52 ERA in 84.1 innings with the Mets entering tonight. Severino has drastically improved in both hard-hit rate (45.0% in 2023 to 37.2% in 2024) and ground-ball rate (43.3% in 2023 to 51.0% in 2024).
For the Cubs, right-hander Javier Assad takes the ball for his 16th start of the season while owning a 2.75 ERA. Assad had a remarkable start to the season and held a 1.49 ERA across his first 9 starts. In his 6 starts since, Assad is pitching to a 4.75 ERA, increasing his overall ERA by more than a full run. This does not come as a total surprise however, as Assad’s xERA is 4.08, suggesting his recent results are more in line with what we should expect. Assad pitches to contact, with his chase rate and whiff rate both falling in the 13th percentile or worse. The Mets rank 4th in the month of June in runs scored. With the Mets clicking at the plate and Assad not being the type of pitcher to miss barrels, I lean on the Mets in this spot.
