Kyle Lupas
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Sunday brings yet another exciting day of MLB action as all 30 teams are scheduled to play, while many wrap up their series. Today’s slate begins in St. Louis between the Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox and comes to a close on ESPN at 7:10 PM ET with a matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves. For Sunday’s mega parlay I have a pair of teams on the money line and one team to cover the run line, paying out at +838 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Sunday’s MLB mega parlay.
Giants -1.5 (+106)
Tigers ML (+130)
Padres ML (-102)
MLB Parlay Odds: +838
San Francisco Giants -1.5 over Colorado Rockies (+106)
The Colorado Rockies hot streak came to a screeching halt over the weekend, dropping back-to-back games to the San Francisco Giants, losing 10-5 on Friday followed by a 14-4 loss on Saturday. The consecutive losses come on the heels of a 7-game winning streak for the Rockies, who have just 15 total wins on the year. Other than the 7-game winning streak, Colorado has not won back-to-back games at any other point this season. The 2 losses to San Francisco also brought their head-to-head record to 1-4. For the Giants, the wins extended their winning streak to 3 games and they will look to close the series out on a high note before heading to Pittsburgh on Tuesday for a 3-game set with the Pirates.
The first 2 games of this series have been largely dominated by San Francisco’s lineup, who compiled 32 hits for 24 runs. The Giants have themselves another favorable matchup this afternoon when Rockies’ starter Dakota Hudson makes his 9th start of the season. Through 8 outings, the right-hander has been inconsistent, posting a 6.13 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with his last 5 outings going less than 6.0 innings. On May 7, the Giants were all over Hudson, who completed just 3.2 innings after surrendering 4 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks. Walks have been a recurring issue for Hudson with 25 walks to just 23 strikeouts. I see this game going much the same way as it did in their prior matchup on May 7.
The Giants will have a significant pitching advantage as Jordan Hicks takes the ball for his 10th start. Since becoming the centerpiece of the Giants’ rotation, Hicks has been rock solid. Hicks owns a 2.44 ERA to a 3.53 xERA, but his walks are down considerably from prior seasons and he induces plenty of ground ball outs. Hicks ranks in the 91st percentile in ground-ball rate and has allowed just 2 home runs across 48.0 innings. Perhaps the one knock on Hicks is the fact he has only completed 6.0 full innings in 3 of his 9 outings, but the Giants’ bullpen ranks 3rd in xFIP and has been steady to this point. With how dominant the Giants have been in this series, it’s difficult to bet against them in this spot. I’ll back San Francisco to cover the run line to kick things off.
Detroit Tigers over Arizona Diamondbacks (+130)
Following their run to the World Series in 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks have not played the way one might expect the reigning NL Pennant winners to play to begin 2024. Entering the day, Arizona is 4 games under .500 and already 9 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Pitching has been a major issue thus far for the D-backs, who rank 25th in ERA with their starting rotation posting a 4.40 ERA through 46 games. 31-year-old left-hander Jordan Montgomery has not helped the cause, as his 4.76 ERA is above the team mark and is his worst mark since 2020. Montgomery is pitching right in line with his 4.88 xERA and he’s experienced major regression in his strikeout numbers, sitting down just 14.3% of the batters he’s faced. The Tigers’ lineup isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but they have come out swinging this series, plating 13 runs on Friday and another 8 on Saturday on a combined 32 hits.
Meanwhile, the D-backs have plated just 3 runs in the series and have only scored 7 runs over their last 4 games. This afternoon, Arizona will go up against 26-year-old right-hander Matt Manning, who owns a 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 4 starts. Manning has noticeably increased his strikeout rate to 22.7%, up from 15.8% in 2023, and should see some positive regression with his xERA at 3.85. The matchup with Arizona is also a favorable one for Manning, as the D-backs perform much better when facing left-handed pitching. The D-backs rank 2nd with a 128 wRC+ against lefties, but drop way down to 26th with a 89 wRC+ against righties. Detroit seems undervalued in this game given the matchup paired with Arizona’s recent struggles at the plate. Look for the Tigers to complete the sweep before heading off to Kansas City.
San Diego Padres over Atlanta Braves (-102)
The San Diego Padres have been a difficult team to gauge this season and the month of May has been a whirlwind to say the least. The Padres won 3 consecutive series against the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Dodgers to start the month and then got swept by the 15-29 Colorado Rockies. Then in typical Padre fashion, they beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1 on Friday night to open their 4-game set. The Padres are 12-9 against teams with winning records but just 11-15 against teams with losing records. I like the value here with the Padres, especially with their ace Yu Darvish on the hill. Through 8 starts, the 37-year-old right-hander owns a 2.43 ERA alongside a 0.98 WHIP. The underlying metrics don’t suggest a ton of regression either, with Darvish’s xERA listed at 3.17. The Braves are a difficult lineup to navigate, but Darvish is in a groove and hasn’t allowed a single run over his last 3 outings. It’s also worth noting that San Diego ranks slightly ahead of Atlanta in wRC+, so the lineups are much closer in production than one might expect.
Taking the hill for the Braves is 24-year-old right-hander Bryce Elder, who has experienced a tough start to the season after being a reliable arm in Atlanta over his first 2 seasons. Through 4 starts, Elder owns a 4.79 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP with opposing lineups hitting .317 against him. The underlying metrics for Elder raise plenty of concerns as he’s actually outperformed his 5.24 xERA. Elder ranks in the 27th percentile or worse in nearly every category other than walk rate (43rd percentile) and ground ball rate (92nd percentile). Elder’s 47% hard-hit rate and .289 xBA is deeply troubling against a San Diego lineup featuring Fernando Tatis, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts at the top. With each team’s lineup and bullpen performing similarly, the Padres have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup. I’ll back Darvish and the Padres here given the pitching matchup.
