Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
Sunday provides another jam-packed MLB slate featuring 16 games with 6 games set to start before 2:00 pm ET, a double-header between the Mariners and Rockies starting at 3:10 pm ET, and of course Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN with first pitch set for 7:10 pm ET between the Atlanta Braves and the Texas Rangers. For my 3-leg parlay I have chosen 2 games from the 4:10 pm ET window along with a play for tonight’s game on ESPN.
Below I will provide a breakdown of each individual leg, and also don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Blue Jays ML (+110)
Dodgers alt run line -2.5 (+120)
Braves vs Rangers over 9.5 (-122)
MLB Parlay Odds: +740
Toronto Blue Jays ML over San Diego Padres (+110)
The Toronto Blue Jays look to secure a 3-game sweep of the San Diego Padres this afternoon with first pitch set for 4:10 pm ET. Toronto has managed to hold San Diego quiet though 2 games, giving up just 1 run on Friday and 2 runs yesterday. The top of the Padres’ lineup has failed to produce, with their top 4 batters in Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado going a combined 5-for-31 (.161) with 10 strikeouts. San Diego could find itself lost at the plate once more today as Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt enters off back-to-back quality outings.
After allowing 4 earned runs in back-to-back starts to begin the season, Bassitt has settled in — giving up just 2 earned over his past 2 starts, both resulting in Blue Jays victories. The advanced metrics for Bassitt aren’t nearly as impressive, ranking in the 25th percentile or lower in nearly every category, but he’s facing a struggling lineup that could lead him to another quality outing. Another starting pitcher with some concerning advanced metrics is right-hander Joe Musgrove, whose 8.09 xERA and .348 xBA are among the worst marks in all of baseball. Musgrove has given up at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his 5 outings and I think he could have issues with the top of this Toronto lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was off to a slow start, but he is hitting .438 across his last 4 games and has multi-hit games in both games with the Padres. With the Padres struggling at the plate and Musgrove failing to find his stuff, I’ll back Bassitt and the Jays to complete the sweep.
Los Angeles Dodgers alt run line -2.5 over New York Mets (+120)
The New York Mets are tied with the Atlanta Braves for the longest active winning streak at 6 games, but I believe that comes to an end today for New York. The Mets have been awfully impressive of late, with wins in 8 of their last 9 games to go along with 5 consecutive series wins over the Reds, Braves, Royals, Pirates and now the Dodgers following a 6-4 win yesterday. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have not played to their standard — losing 4 of their last 5 series with a 2-7 record across their last 9 games. While I must admit the +205 odds on the Mets ML was tempting, there’s a reason Los Angeles is so heavily favored.
This afternoon’s starting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and Adrian Houser is extremely favorable towards the Dodgers. Houser owns a 4.70 ERA across 3 starts and the Mets are 0-3 in the games he’s pitched in. Houser had solid outings against both the Tigers and the Pirates, but against the Braves he allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits, 2 walks and 2 hit batsman across 5.0 innings. The Dodgers’ lineup is much closer to the level of the Braves than to the Tigers or Pirates. Glasnow has also pitched well for the Dodgers in his first season after spending the last 6 in Tampa Bay. The right-hander owns a 3.72 ERA, but an even better 2.98 xERA across his first 5 outings. Aside from Glasnow’s last outing where he surrendered 6 earned runs, he’s gone at least 5.0 innings and given up 3 earned runs or fewer in each start. I’ll back Glasnow to limit the Mets and give L.A. a solid chance to pull away.
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers over 9.5 (-122)
The ABraves will go for the sweep of the Texas Rangers tonight with first pitch coming at 7:10 pm ET on ESPN. Atlanta enters tonight’s game on a 6-game winning streak after sweeping the Astros in Houston and are averaging 6.5 runs per game in that 6-game span, scoring at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 14 games. Meanwhile, the Rangers dropped back down to .500 with their loss yesterday and are just 5-9 since April 7. Texas has been quiet at the plate through the first 2 games of the series, but tonight could present an opportunity to turn things around, while Atlanta continues to score at a high clip.
The Rangers have just 5 runs in the series, but they will be going up against a young right-hander in Darius Vines of the Braves. Vines has just 25.0 innings of experience in the majors, but he should see an increased workload this season with Spencer Strider done for the year. Vines put together a solid outing against the Astros last week, going 4.2 innings while allowing 1 earned run, but he walked 3 batters and threw 80 pitches. I have some concerns with Vines falling behind in counts to experienced hitters such as Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. I see a higher likelihood that the Rangers post a crooked number than Vines shutting them out.
The Braves hardly have an off night at the plate and this could very well be the best top to bottom lineup in baseball. Atlanta ranks 2nd in runs scored, 1st with 80 extra-base hits and 1st with a .290 team batting average. There’s not much opposing teams can do to slow this team down. Rangers starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen will attempt to limit the damage, but history is not on his side. Lorenzen saw the Braves 3 times last season when he pitched with the Phillies and the results were not pretty. Atlanta batted .364 with 5 home runs, 3 doubles, and scored 14 runs off Lorenzen in just 11.1 innings. Lorenzen gave up at least 4 runs in each of those starts and recorded just 1 out in his last outing against the Braves. This should be a high-scoring affair, so I’ll back this number up to 10 runs.
